LAS VEGAS – In 2017 the U.S. aftermarket for Class 6 to 8 trucks and trailers grew to $30.4 billion and it could be poised for growth through 2022, according to MacKay & Co., speaking at the Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue.
In total the U.S. aftermarket for Class 6 to 8 trucks and trailers is up 3.1%, driven by increases in population and utilization, said John Blodgett, vice president of sales and marketing for MacKay & Company. The Canadian aftermarket is up 9.2% to $4.2 billion, driven by increases in pricing, average annual miles driven and utilization.
Aftermarket demand depends in part on new vehicle sales. U.S. Class 6-7 retail sales were up 10% in 2017 and trailer sales were up 2%, but Class 8 sales were down slightly (-0.5%)
For 2018, Ken Griswold, director of market strategy and sales at MacKay, said the company expects U.S. retail sales of Class 6 and 7 trucks to be up 2% to 135,000, Class 8 sales to be up 0.4% to 237,000 and trailer sales to be 280,000, down 1%.
For Canada, retail sales in Class 6 and 7 were up 16%, Class 8 sales up 11% and trailer sales up 10%. MacKay’s forecast for 2018 is for Class 6 and 7 retail sales to be down 2%, Class 8 and trailer sales to each be down 6%.
Looking further out, MacKay & Co. expects the total U.S. operating population to increase in most categories. In 2022, the company forecasts a 16% increase for Class 6, an 8.1% for Class 8, and an 8% increase for trailers. They expect Class 7 sales to be down 7%.
For Canada, the outlook is not as rosy. MacKay forecasts a 10% decrease for the Class 6 operating universe, 3% decrease for Class 7, 0.6% decrease for Class 8 and 1.8% decrease for trailers.
MacKay & Co. is seeing growth for the U.S. aftermarket out to 2022. The numbers look like this: 2018 up to $30.8 billion, 2019 at $31.6 billion, 2020 at $32.8 billion, 2021 at $33.8 billion and 2022 at $34.9 billion. This equates to a 2.8% compound annual growth rate.
For the Canadian aftermarket, the numbers look like this: 2018 up to $4.4 billion, 2019 at $4.6 billion, 2020 at $4.8 billion, 2021 at $5.1 billion and 2022 at $5.3 billion. The forecast equates to a 4.4% compound annual growth rate.
When it comes to parts pricing, MacKay is predicting a 1% increase from 2018 through 2022 in the U.S. and a 3.7% increase in parts pricing in Canada for the same period.
Fleet utilization for Class 6-8 vehicles was at 85.6% in 2017 and MacKay & Co. expects it to stay at that level for the foreseeable future.
Blodgett and Griswold closed out their presentation by looking at some of the changing dynamics in the trucking industry that will affect the aftermarket. Looking at aerodynamics and electric vehicles, Griswold said we will be seeing not only different parts, but there will be fewer of them. There will also be less service work and the nature of the work will be different, which has implications for technician training.