FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) rose nearly a full point month over month in February to a reading of 10.2. The trucking analytic firm said that’s the highest level in four years, with the spike driven largely by continued strengthening in freight rates.

The double-digit reading signals notably favorable conditions for carriers, as the index aggregates key industry factors including freight volumes, rates, capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs.

March Diesel Spike Creates ‘Outlier’

Despite February’s strong showing, FTR expects March results to look very different.

A record surge in diesel prices during the month dealt a sharp, short-term blow to carriers and could push the TCI into negative territory. However, preliminary analysis still suggests a marginally positive reading due to strong rates and tight capacity.

FTR noted that, regardless of the final number, March will likely stand out as an anomaly.

“Extreme volatility in fuel prices, especially with the just-announced ceasefire in the Middle East, and uncertainty over how the spot market will respond to falling diesel prices make the near-term truck freight market far more difficult to forecast,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking.

While near-term conditions remain uncertain, Vise said the longer-term outlook continues to favor carriers.

FTR said the market’s reaction this year to weather disruptions and fuel price swings underscores how much capacity has tightened.

The key question going forward, according to Vise, is whether freight volumes will be strong enough to drive further rate increases—or if carriers will simply maintain recent gains.

Index Reflects Overall Market Health

The TCI combines five core metrics -- freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs -- into a single measure of trucking market conditions.

Positive readings indicate favorable operating conditions, while negative readings signal deterioration. Values near zero suggest a neutral environment, while double-digit readings point to significant market shifts.