Improving freight rates and tighter capacity push FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index to its highest level in nearly four years.

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) surged in December to its strongest reading in nearly four years, signaling the most favorable operating environment for carriers since early 2022.

The TCI jumped to 4.85 in December, up sharply from 2.14 in November, driven primarily by improving freight rates and stronger capacity utilization.

According to FTR, overall market conditions are now firmly positive for carriers and are expected to remain supportive through the forecast horizon.

Consistently Favorable Economic Conditions

“The TCI already indicated consistently favorable conditions for trucking companies over the next couple of years, but the latest outlook is even stronger,” said Avery Vise, FTR vice president of trucking. “FTR’s forecasts for the economy and for industrial activity improved significantly in the latest adjustment.”

Vise cautioned that some of the economic data underpinning the improved outlook is relatively recent and subject to revision. Even so, he said multiple independent indicators are reinforcing the more optimistic view of the truck freight market.

Among those signals are sharp spot rate increases following recent bouts of severe winter weather, as well as a solid January manufacturing index reading from the Institute for Supply Management.

While FTR is not forecasting a return to the extreme market conditions seen in 2021, Vise noted that a market approaching that level of strength is no longer out of the question.

“FTR is not forecasting anything like the 2021 market,” Vise said, “but something close to it no longer seems inconceivable.”

Tracking Five Key Industry Variables

The Trucking Conditions Index is designed to provide a broad, forward-looking snapshot of the industry’s health. It does so by tracking five key variables: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs.

Those factors are combined into a single index number, with positive readings indicating favorable conditions for carriers and negative readings pointing to a more challenging environment.

 Readings near zero reflect neutral conditions, while double-digit values in either direction suggest significant shifts in the operating landscape.

Additional detail on December’s TCI reading and the factors behind FTR’s revised freight outlook are included in the February issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published Jan. 30. The report includes analysis of load volumes, capacity trends, rates, and broader economic conditions shaping the U.S. truck freight market.