Cargo theft and supply chain crime incidents across the U.S. and Canada dipped in the first quarter of 2026. But the threat environment is evolving in ways that should concern fleets and logistics providers.

That’s according to Verisk CargoNet, which just released results from its review of the first quarter of 2026.

CargoNet recorded 767 supply chain crime events in Q1. The company said that is a 5.3% decrease from the same period a year ago and a 12.2% drop from the previous quarter.

Despite the decline in overall incidents, estimated losses totaled $131.58 million --essentially flat year over year.

At the same time, confirmed cargo theft reports increased, rising by 41 incidents to 596 cases.

CargoNet said the data suggests that while opportunistic theft may be declining, more targeted crimes are becoming a larger share of activity.

Geographic Shift Reflects Organized Crime Influence

CargoNet’s analysis points to a clear geographic and structural shift in cargo theft activity, with organized crime groups playing a larger role.

California and New Jersey stood out as major growth areas. California incidents rose from 255 to 277, while New Jersey more than doubled from 27 to 59 incidents -- a 119% increase. Both states offer dense freight infrastructure and proximity to major consumer markets, making them attractive for organized theft operations.

Meanwhile, traditionally high-activity states tied to opportunistic theft saw declines. Texas, for example, dropped from 102 incidents to 80, particularly in major freight corridors like Dallas–Fort Worth and Houston.

The shift suggests domestic, opportunistic theft activity is giving way to more coordinated operations concentrated in key logistics hubs.

Targeted Commodities Replace Opportunistic Hauls

The types of freight being stolen are changing alongside the actors behind the crimes.

Personal care and beauty products saw the sharpest increase, jumping 178% year over year from 18 to 50 incidents, driven largely by cosmetic and fragrance thefts in the Northeast. These products are easy to resell through online marketplaces, making them attractive targets.

Food and beverage remained the top category overall with 144 incidents, though the mix changed. Beverage theft declined while seafood theft rose sharply.

At the same time, traditionally targeted categories such as building materials, apparel, and vehicle-related shipments all declined. These goods tend to be bulkier, less standardized, or harder to quickly resell at scale -- factors that make them less appealing to organized networks.

Impersonation Schemes Become Dominant Tactic

The most significant development in Q1 may be the rapid evolution of impersonation-based cargo theft.

CargoNet reports that criminal networks are increasingly impersonating legitimate carriers and brokers using two primary methods: credential theft and outright acquisition of trucking companies.

Credential harvesting involves phishing attacks and malware designed to compromise business email accounts, phone systems, and load board or brokerage platforms. Once inside, criminals can pose as legitimate carriers, accept loads, and redirect shipments under trusted identities.

In parallel, some groups are purchasing legitimate motor carriers through online marketplaces and brokerage services. These acquisitions allow criminals to operate under valid authorities, making detection more difficult.

According to CargoNet, the rise in impersonation schemes is partly a response to improved anti-fraud controls at the load tender stage.

“The anti-fraud tools the industry has deployed are working—they’re forcing criminals to invest more in elaborate schemes,” said Keith Lewis, vice president of operations at Verisk CargoNet.

However, he warned that focusing solely on tender-stage verification is no longer sufficient. Instead, the industry needs identity verification measures that extend across the full shipment lifecycle, from booking through final delivery.

Outlook: Organized, Tech-Enabled Theft will Persist

CargoNet expects impersonation-based fraud and the exploitation of legitimate carrier identities to remain central to cargo theft activity in the coming quarters.

Organized crime groups are likely to continue focusing on high-value, easily redistributed goods while concentrating operations in major logistics hubs that enable fast movement and resale.

For fleets, brokers, and shippers, the takeaway is clear: fewer theft incidents do not mean lower risk. The threat is becoming more sophisticated and harder to detect.