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What the U.S.-Canada Trade War Means for Trucking
Escalating U.S.-Canada tariffs could disrupt cross-border freight, reduce truck volumes, raise costs, and create new uncertainty for carriers on both sides of the border.

The two countries had appeared close to an agreement before negotiations collapsed.
Heavy Duty Trucking
Medium- and heavy-duty truck tariffs were among the major sticking points in U.S.-Canada trade talks last week, which broke down Friday, ratcheting up trade tensions between the two countries.
After talks fell through on August 25, President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of the country’s exports on Saturday. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by saying the longtime allies were “at war” over trade and announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on American goods starting Sept. 8.
The two countries had appeared close to an agreement before negotiations collapsed late Friday. Although several issues remained unresolved, tariffs on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles were reportedly among the sticking points.
The escalating dispute also raises new questions about the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which governs trade among the three countries.
Trump Targets Canadian Auto Industry
On Monday, Trump said tariffs on Canadian “cars, trucks, both large and small,” automotive parts and steel would increase to 50% on January 1.
It was not immediately clear whether the reference to large trucks includes Class 8 commercial vehicles.
Medium- and heavy-duty trucks already are subject to a separate 25% Section 232 tariff imposed in 2025. That tariff explicitly covers Classes 3 through 8, although USMCA-compliant trucks receive special treatment based on their U.S. content.
What Went Wrong?
Each side blamed the other for tanking the deal.
According to reporting by Bloomberg, Reuters, and Politico, the talks collapsed in part over cutting U.S. tariffs on Canadian medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
Under the deal negotiators were hammering out, the regular auto tariff would have been lowered to 15% from the current 25%. Canada wanted that relief expanded to medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.
On August 26, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the administration had been clear during the failed Canada negotiations that medium- and heavy-duty trucks would not receive the tariff relief being discussed for cars and light trucks.
Trucking stocks fell the Monday after the deal fell apart as investors reacted to the tariff tensions. MarketWatch reported that J.B. Hunt shares were down 5.1%, FedEx Freight 4.5%, Landstar 4.1%, and Old Dominion 2.4%. MarketWatch specifically attributed the trucking selloff to concerns that the trade war will reduce cross-border freight volumes.
Trade War Effects on Trucking
Transportation and warehousing are already among the sectors economists say are absorbing the largest disruptions from this trade fight, according to reporting on the tariff standoff.
The Alabama Trucking Association observed that even though it isn’t a border state, the state's trucking industry "is deeply wired into North American auto manufacturing."
Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai, Honda, and Mazda Toyota plants in the state "all depend on parts and finished vehicles moving across the U.S.-Canada border as part of an integrated supply chain that doesn’t care about state lines.
"When tariffs on autos and auto parts swing 35 points inside a single news cycle, the freight that keeps those Alabama plants running gets more expensive and less predictable to move."
The Canadian Trucking Alliance warned that a prolonged trade war could create problems for trucking on both sides of the border.
If Canadian exports to the U.S. decline, Canadian fleets will not only have fewer southbound loads. That also means fewer Canadian trucks will be in the U.S. and available to haul American goods northbound.
The result could be an equipment imbalance that makes cross-border freight harder and more expensive to move, according to the association.
CTA argues that trucking needs to be part of any government response to industries hurt by tariffs or declining trade. In past economic support programs, it said, trucking often was overlooked, even though carriers felt the effects when customers cut production and freight volumes fell.
The association's broader message is that trucking can’t be treated simply as a downstream casualty of a trade war. Because trucks connect manufacturers, suppliers, and customers across North America, disruptions to trade can quickly ripple through freight networks and carrier operations.
Editor's Note: Updated 10:30 a.m. EDT August 25 to add comment from Alabama Trucking Association. Updated 2:00 p.m. EDT August 31 to add a comment from U.S. trade representative.
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