The business case for electric trucks is taking on greater importance as federal policy removes some of the regulatory pressure and financial incentives that encouraged fleets to adopt them.

That shift is reshaping ACT Research’s zero-emission vehicle forecast. The research firm says its projections now rely on financial viability and technology improvements — factors that influence fleet purchasing decisions regardless of emissions mandates.

ACT’s September 2026 Outlook Plus report points to continued, but gradual, adoption of zero-emission commercial vehicles. High upfront costs remain a barrier, with broader growth expected after 2030.

Federal Policy Changes the Forecast

In less than two years, ACT Research said, the tide has turned on legislation that would have driven greater adoption of CV decarbonization efforts.

ACT’s earlier forecasts were heavily influenced by emissions regulations, particularly California’s Advanced Clean Trucks rule, which required manufacturers to sell increasing percentages of zero-emission trucks.

In June 2025, Congress and President Trump used the Congressional Review Act to revoke federal waivers for that rule and California’s Heavy-Duty Omnibus emissions regulation.

In February 2026, EPA rescinded its 2009 greenhouse gas endangerment finding and repealed federal greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and engines.

Federal tax incentives also ended earlier than originally scheduled. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted in July 2025, shortened the availability of two credits established by the Inflation Reduction Act:

• Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit: Offered up to $40,000 for qualifying commercial vehicles weighing at least 14,000 pounds. Vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, 2025, are ineligible.
• Alternative Fuel Vehicle Refueling Property Credit: Ended for qualifying charging and refueling equipment placed in service after June 30, 2026.

Although some state and local incentives remain available, ACT says its forecast generally does not assume subsidies will boost adoption.

A Modest Increase for Class 8 Electric Trucks

ACT’s overall outlook for cumulative zero-emission vehicle adoption changed little from its June 2026 forecast. However, the firm made small upward adjustments to its Class 8 battery-electric truck projections.

In the near term, ACT cites orders indicating interest in the Tesla Semi. For the longer term, discussions with fleets already operating battery-electric trucks led the firm to revisit its assumptions about charging infrastructure utilization.

Those adjustments suggest opportunities for electric trucks even as the broader policy environment becomes less supportive.

Costs Still Limit Broader Adoption

ACT sees battery-electric vehicles as a workable option for some lighter commercial vehicles and duty cycles suited to an electric powertrain. Higher purchase prices, however, continue to limit the potential for widespread adoption over the next several years.

The firm expects adoption to accelerate after 2030 as powertrain efficiency improves, costs decline, charging becomes faster, and charging infrastructure expands.

Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles are expected to play a smaller role, with deployments concentrated in specific applications rather than reaching the adoption levels projected for battery-electric vehicles.

By 2040, ACT analysts predict a 22% ZEV adoption rate (electric and hydrogen) across Classes 4-8.

For fleets evaluating electric trucks, ACT’s outlook places greater weight on whether equipment and charging investments can meet operational demands at a competitive cost.