Uncertainty surrounding the Environmental Protection Agency's 2027 emissions regulations is putting a damper on new Class 8 truck orders, despite improving freight rates and ongoing equipment replacement needs.

That's the message from FTR Transportation Intelligence and ACT Research, which both reported disappointing preliminary North American Class 8 truck orders for October.

October is typically a strong month for truck orders as fleets plan equipment purchases for the following year. But this year, orders came in at roughly half the historical average, according to FTR.

“While spot rates remain supportive of equipment demand, the lack of clarity around EPA 2027 rules and associated costs has left OEMs and fleets unable to plan for next year,” said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research.

“It’s not a lack of desire for new equipment holding fleets back, but rather the inability to make informed investment decisions in the face of regulatory and economic uncertainty.”

What Will 2027 Trucks Cost?

The EPA earlier this year proposed changes to its 2027 nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions regulations, but the final requirements remain uncertain.

That uncertainty affects both truck manufacturers and their fleet customers.

According to FTR, truck makers have begun opening their 2027 model-year order boards, but some may not yet be releasing all their production slots or finalizing prices until they know exactly what the regulations will require.

Fleets, meanwhile, may be holding off on purchases in hopes of getting more favorable pricing once the rules are finalized.

And the potential cost differences are significant.

Under the proposed regulatory framework, nonconformance penalties could add an estimated $6,000 to $7,000 per engine if manufacturers pass those costs along to buyers, according to FTR. That's compared with an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 premium for engines that fully comply with the stricter emissions standards.

Actual costs will depend on the final regulations and manufacturers' pricing decisions.

Rising Costs Add to the Pressure

Emissions regulations aren't the only thing holding back truck purchases.

Fleets are dealing with rising operating costs, even as freight rates improve. Higher diesel prices, insurance premiums, and labor costs are squeezing margins and limiting how much money carriers have available to invest in equipment.

“Fleet capital spending priorities may be shifting toward trailers rather than tractors in the near term,” said Dan Moyer, FTR's senior analyst for commercial vehicles.

That shift may already be showing up in trailer orders. According to ACT Research, preliminary U.S. trailer orders jumped 311% year over year in September to 42,700 units, up 75% from August. Although the year-over-year comparison was exaggerated by unusually weak orders in September 2025, the seasonally adjusted total was the third highest in 55 months. ACT said the strength reflects both seasonal buying patterns and an unusual order cycle that saw purchases delayed last year.

Another factor is that the earlier rush to buy trucks ahead of anticipated 2027 emissions requirements has largely run its course.

That means future orders will depend more on fleet profitability, replacement needs, and confidence in equipment costs.

How Far Did Class 8 Orders Fall?

The two research firms reported somewhat different preliminary figures, but both point to a sharp slowdown.

• FTR estimated 15,600 Class 8 net orders in October, down 36% from a year earlier and 24% from September.
• ACT Research estimated 13,500 orders, down 45% year over year.

FTR's October estimate was nearly 50% below the 10-year average of 31,089 orders for the month.

The weak October figures followed a relatively soft September. Combined orders for the two months were down 20% from the same period last year, according to FTR, suggesting a slow start to the 2027 truck-order season.

That contrasts with the stronger ordering activity earlier this year. FTR reported year-to-date Class 8 orders of 278,201 units, up 74% from the same period in 2025.

Medium-duty trucks, however, are showing a different trend. ACT Research reported preliminary October orders for Classes 5-7 of 18,000 units, up 14% from a year earlier.

Delayed Orders or Lost Sales?

Despite the weak October numbers, FTR sees reasons for optimism.

Fleets continue to need replacement trucks, freight rates have strengthened, and tighter industry capacity could help support equipment demand.

“Weak October results suggest that some purchases may be deferred rather than canceled,” Moyer said.

That could set the stage for stronger orders once the EPA finalizes its requirements and manufacturers provide more certainty about production schedules and prices.

For now, though, fleets trying to put together their 2027 equipment budgets have a significant unanswered question: How much will their next new trucks cost?

Both FTR and ACT Research expect to release final October order figures in mid-November.