Freight demand hasn’t taken off. But hiring a qualified truck driver is getting harder and more expensive as shrinking freight capacity has carriers trying to take advantage of higher rates after several years of freight recession.

Driver cost per hire rose 41% year over year and 29% from January through September, according to Conversion Interactive Agency. Its latest recruiting and retention report with People. Data. Analytics. (PDA) points to a growing challenge for fleets: spending more to replace drivers while competing offers give their existing drivers more reasons to consider leaving.

A separate fourth-quarter outlook from the National Transportation Institute helps explain the squeeze. The available driver pool is shrinking, and many experienced drivers with strong safety records already have jobs they aren’t eager to leave.

For fleets preparing their 2027 budgets, the reports raise questions that go beyond how much to spend on recruiting. Is the pay package competitive? Does the job deliver what recruiters promise? And are everyday problems giving drivers another reason to answer another carrier’s call?

More Competition Without Much More Freight

The recruiting pressure fits with the unusual freight recovery ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello described at the association’s Management Conference & Exhibition.

Costello said the recovery has been driven largely by shrinking capacity. Rising costs gradually pushed carriers out of the market, while tougher enforcement of driver regulations and high diesel prices added pressure.

Fewer trucks and fewer drivers are competing for freight that hasn’t grown much. In a classic supply/demand situation, that's pushing up freight rates.

Competition has been heating up for truck drivers, PDA/Conversion reported in its previous quarterly survey.

NTI reported that the for-hire driver population dropped more than 5% in 2025 and another 1% in early 2026. The company, which tracks driver wages and compensation, identifies regulatory enforcement, an aging workforce, the drug and alcohol clearinghouse, and a limited pipeline of new drivers as supply constraints.

The concern also showed up in ATRI’s 2026 Top Industry Issues survey. Among motor carrier respondents, the driver shortage ranked third and driver retention sixth.

That doesn’t mean every fleet faces the same hiring conditions. NTI emphasizes that competition varies by location and job, with over-the-road, specialized, and other difficult-to-fill positions being more challenging.

A Bigger Raise May Still Fall Short

Fleets entered this tightening market with driver pay already moving higher.

ATA’s 2026 Driver Compensation Study found that dry van irregular-route employee drivers at for-hire truckload carriers earned median annual compensation of $73,639 in 2025. That was 8.3% above the 2023 median, although the carriers participating in the two studies differed.

Median compensation for dedicated-route dry van drivers at for-hire truckload carriers increased 4.2% over the same period.

The study covered more than 130 fleets representing over 140,000 employee drivers and 9,000 independent contractors. Most surveyed carriers planned additional pay increases in 2026.

Conversion and PDA’s carrier survey suggests those adjustments have continued. 46% of respondents said they had increased driver pay within the previous 90 days.

NTI cautions that a substantial percentage increase in driver pay may just reflect a fleet working to catch up after years without an adjustment. The resulting offer may give an experienced driver little financial reason to change employers.

For those drivers, changing jobs also means weighing unfamiliar routes, schedules, and working relationships against what they already have. The grass isn't always greener on the other side of the fence.

What Drivers Actually Take Home

Pay rates tell only part of the story.

In his ATA presentation, Costello noted that hourly-equivalent earnings kept rising through the freight downturn, while weekly earnings dipped as drivers got fewer miles and loads before recovering.

PDA’s findings show why that distinction matters. Miles accounted for 48% of compensation feedback in the third quarter, compared with 33.4% for pay rate. Paycheck errors accounted for another 6%.

A higher mileage rate has limited value if a driver can't get enough productive miles. Poor planning and repeated shop visits can turn an apparently competitive package into a disappointing paycheck.

ATRI’s survey offers another reason to look at earnings from the driver’s perspective. Compensation ranked ninth among motor carrier respondents, but first among company drivers.

Those rankings measure priorities rather than pay adequacy. But they suggest fleets should listen closely when drivers say they're not getting the income they expected.

When Frustration Becomes a Resignation

Compensation accounted for 26.6% of the driver feedback categorized by PDA in its third-quarter survey, followed by equipment at 24.9% and operations at 19.4%.

In the report’s ranking of specific issues among drivers who voluntarily left, equipment mechanical problems and breakdowns ranked first.

Uncompetitive pay or a better offer ranked second, followed by family reasons and poor scheduling or planning. Wanting daily home time ranked sixth. Complaints about dishonest or misleading recruiting ranked seventh.

“Drivers aren’t just evaluating the problems they’re experiencing with their current carrier. They’re comparing those experiences against other opportunities,” said Scott Dismuke, PDA vice president of operations, in the report announcement.

A breakdown can set off several problems at once. Lost miles mean less earnings. A delayed repair can disrupt home time. Repeated trouble after a truck leaves the shop can erode confidence that the carrier will fix the problem.

Communication accounted for 40.7% of the negative feedback. But PDA stresses that responding to a driver is only part of the job. The underlying problem still needs attention.

ATRI’s operating-cost research adds evidence of the connection between lost time and turnover. Each additional 30 minutes of average dwell time per stop was associated with a 5.4-percentage-point increase in average driver turnover.

That is an association, not proof that detention caused the increase, but it reinforces the need to look at where drivers lose productive time.

Making Recruiting Dollars Go Further

As hiring costs rise, fleets should take a closer look at what happens after a driver expresses interest. A cumbersome application or slow response can mean your fleet loses out to a carrier with a better process.

Many fleets are using artificial intelligence to speed up the truck driver recruiting and hiring process.

Conversion reports that carriers using its Lead Assist-Agentic technology had a 32% advantage in year-over-year hiring performance in the third quarter compared with carriers not using the platform. It also reported a $17 lower cost per completed application and 20% more completed applications per $1,000 in marketing spending.

NTI’s outlook also emphasizes reaching drivers before they begin actively job hunting, through referrals, ongoing contact, and a clear picture of the work.

The Conversion/PDA report does not disclose detailed methodology or sample sizes, and its feedback percentages should not be read as fleet turnover rates. But when you look at that along with the ATA and ATRI findings, it gives fleet managers questions to investigate.