Only 45% of the carrier executives responding to a new survey expect volume increases in the next 12 months, compared with 80% in May.


The Third Quarter 2011 Transport Capital Partners Business Expectations Survey found that carrier optimism that business volumes will increase over the next 12 months has fallen from a high of 92.4% in February to 44.9% in August '11. Most carrier executives shifted to a "remain the same" response over the last quarter, with 46.7% expecting that volumes will remain the same. The percent that think volumes will actually decrease has gone from 0% in February to 7.5% in August 2011.

"The weak-to-flat economy and general malaise shown in jobs outlook has truckers joining other businesses in a lack of confidence in the recovery," said Richard Mikes, TCP partner and survey founder.

"TCP expects the next year to be heavily influenced by macro events in this tenuous environment," said Lana Batts, TCP partner.

In contrast to last quarter, smaller carriers (under $25 million in revenue) are more optimistic, with 54% expecting business volume increases compared to 38% of the larger carriers.

Expectations for rate increases showed a decline for the first time in a year, with 61% of the carriers expecting increases, and a third of the carriers expecting rates to remain the same. TCP notes that truckers are becoming more cautious and this attitude may be reflected in future truck orders.

Batts notes that "increased government regulation has been felt by the industry and it is apparent that uncertainty is taking its toll on truckers."

Additionally, Mikes points out that "recent downward trends in consumer confidence, uneven freight demand reports, and spot market volatility are all signs of an economy whose direction is uncertain in carriers' minds."

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