The U.S. economy was rocked today by shocking numbers of 3.3 million people filing unemployment claims for the first time, but the worst is still to come for trucking.
Preliminary reports from both ACT Research and FTR show that North American Class 8 orders for February fell 18-20% from January. Both reported a total drop of 14,100 units.
FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index in December was the highest since January 2019 and the first positive reading since 0.28 in July.
Barring the unexpected, trucking can generally expect flat to moderate growth in demand and rates in 2020, with most of the growth in the second half of the year.
North American Class 8 orders for January are down month over month but up year over year, according to both FTR and ACT Research. Following a consistent trend over the last four months of averages of 19,000 trucks, January totals dropped to 17,700 units. ACT reports show a similar drop in medium-duty.
Weaker spot rates are mainly to blame for a dip in the latest FTR Trucking Conditions Index, which tracks the industry via freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel price, and financing
Preliminary reports indicate trailer orders for December were down from the previous month and significantly down from the same time last year, according to ACT Research and FTR estimates.
While it’s been a challenging year for the trucking industry in some ways, comparisons to the runaway market of 2017-2018 may make it seem worse than it is. In their monthly State of Freight webinar Dec. 12, the transportation intelligence analysts at FTR discussed the top trends affecting freight volumes and rates.
From what happened this year to what is projected to happen next year sales-wise, the heavy-duty truck market will be set up for a “modest rebound in 2021 followed by growth into 2023,” according to Act Research.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index slipped into negative territory again for September when it hit its lowest point since May, reflecting a relatively weak environment for carriers.