Freight shipments and payments were both up in September, in line with the expected seasonal rise. But according to the Cass Freight Index, other key economic measures do not indicate that this is the beginning of a trend.


While month-to-month increases in both freight volumes and expenditures showed improvement over 2010, Cass says stagnant retail sales and an expected lack-luster holiday shopping season, coupled with a stubbornly high unemployment rate, do not point to a strong finish for 2011.

"Overall, consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70 percent of GDP, picked up only 0.4 percent in the second quarter," Cass reports. "That was slightly better than the initial 0.1 percent estimate, but marks a significant slowdown from growth of 2.1 percent in the first three months of the year."

All modes reported gains in volume for September, and year-over-year, September was up 7.5 percent from last year, Cass reports, but those levels are not expected to continue improving at those levels going forward.

With global economic growth on the wane and more economists pointing to a double-dip recession, it seems likely that just were we'll be early in 2012, though probably not is as dire shape as we have been.

"Whether the growth rate is negative or an anemic one to two percent like we have been experiencing, the best case outlook is the same - growth below historical averages going into 2012 and slow recovery for the freight sector," the September Cass Freight index suggests.

More info: www.cassinfo.com