Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Retail Sales Surge, Up 4.3% Over Past Year

Retail sales in the U.S. jumped in October, according to Commerce Department figures released Tuesday, surpassing analysts’ expectations.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
November 15, 2016
Economic Watch: Retail Sales Surge, Up 4.3% Over Past Year

 

3 min to read


Retail sales in the U.S. jumped in October, according to Commerce Department figures released Tuesday, surpassing analysts’ expectations.

The 0.8% increase from the month before came as the department also upwardly revised September’s performance to show a 1% increase from August rather than the first reported 0.6% rise. This made for the largest two-month hike in at least the last two years, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Ad Loading...

When October retail sales are compared to the same time in 2015 they are up 4.3%.

Last month’s gain was helped by an increase sales of building materials in the wake of Hurricane Matthew, along with higher auto and gasoline sales. Sales by non-store retailers, including online retail outlets, continued to pick up strongly and were nearly 13% above year-ago levels in October.

So called “core retail sales,” which exclude autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, also increased 0.8% in October from the month before, following an upwardly revised 0.3% September gain. The performance in both these “core sales” and overall retail sales beat consensus estimates from analysts with hikes of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.

Ad Loading...

The solid increase in October retail sales, particularly the better-than-expected gain in “core sales” along with upward revisions to prior months, provides a strong start to the fourth quarter, according to RBC Economics. The October report supports RBC's forecast for consumer spending to pick up to 2.4% from the 2.1% annual pace recorded in the third quarter.

“With help from continued employment growth, rising wages and accommodative financial conditions, consumers have been the only consistent source of gross domestic product growth this year,” said Josh Nye, RBC economist. “We look for another solid contribution in the fourth quarter, although some reversal of the third quarter’s surge in exports and less add from inventories is expected to leave overall GDP growth at a slightly slower 2.3% annualized rate in Q4, following the previous quarter’s 2.9% gain that was the strongest in two years.” 

He said RBC’s forecast assumes consumer spending will continue to grow at a healthy clip in 2017, with potential upside risk if the incoming government follows through on plans to lower income taxes.

Despite the jump in retail sales, this doesn’t automatically mean retailers are going to be in a big rush to keep a high level of stock on their shelves – and that could spell caution for trucking companies.

In a separate report released Thursday, the Commerce Department said overall business inventories increased 0.1% in September, slower than the 0.2% gain in August. Also, retail inventories rose 0.2% in September, while wholesale inventories edged up just 0.1% as stockpiles held by manufacturers were unchanged.

Ad Loading...

This put the total business inventory to sales ratio for September at 1.38 down slightly from both August and September 2015.

According to the Wall Street Journal, some large retailers are hoping to avoid late holiday season discounting on prices and are looking at keeping their inventories lighter than in the past. The downside for them is that could reduce their revenues and could lead to lower sales.

More Fleet Management

A woman holding a tablet with a screen showing rectangles of various colors
SponsoredSeptember 16, 2026

Color Match Smarter: Tools That Restore & Perform

For fleet managers and collision repair professionals keeping heavy-duty trucks on the road, getting the color right the first time isn't just about appearance — it's about efficiency, turnaround time, and bottom-line results. Discover how today's digital color tools are transforming the repair process from guesswork to precision.

Read More →
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo
Fleet Managementby StaffSeptember 15, 2026

FMCSA Pauses Biennial-Update Enforcement Amid Motus Transition

Carriers whose updates were due on or after June 1 have more time, while FMCSA works to stabilize its new registration system and warns of phishing sites impersonating its new carrier registration system, Motus.

Read More →
Geotab Whitepaper Cargo Theft Cover
SponsoredSeptember 14, 2026

2026 Blueprint for Countering Smarter Supply Chain Theft

Cargo theft is no longer just the cost of doing business. It's a multi-billion-dollar criminal enterprise exploiting vulnerabilities across your fleet, drivers, and supply chain.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
A monitor with a bar graph with a person sitting next to it wearing a headset.
SponsoredSeptember 1, 2026

How Telematics Improves Visibility, Control, and Performance in Refrigerated Fleets

Explore how telematics help refrigerated fleets improve visibility, uptime, efficiency, compliance, and cargo protection across connected cold chain operations.

Read More →
Graphic with U.S. and Canadian flags over background illustration of an ink-stamp that says Tariffs.
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeAugust 24, 2026

What the U.S.-Canada Trade War Means for Trucking

Escalating U.S.-Canada tariffs could disrupt cross-border freight, reduce truck volumes, raise costs, and create new uncertainty for carriers on both sides of the border.

Read More →
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseAugust 24, 2026

What Are Trucking’s Top Concerns for 2026?

The American Transportation Research Institute wants to know what's worrying trucking fleet managers, drivers, and other stakeholders in its annual Industry Issues survey.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Four men in suits on the National Mall with giant video screen showing capitol building in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 24, 2026

American Trucking Associations Looks for a New Leader

ATA President and CEO Chris Spear abruptly left his job at the association on August 21, at a pivotal time for the trucking industry.

Read More →
The Cyber Stop column header with photo of a smiling driver in truck with a laptop and a wi-fi icon
Fleet ManagementAugust 21, 2026

Public Wi-Fi Cybersecurity Risks: How Truck Drivers and Fleets Can Protect Their Data

Public Wi-Fi can expose truck drivers and fleets to credential theft, malware, and other cyber threats. Here’s how to reduce the risk on the road.

Read More →
Woman in white blazer superimposed on background showing a row of Fraley & Schilling truck, plus the HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026 logo
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 19, 2026

For Nicky Cupp, Fleet Innovation Starts With Frustration

HDT Truck Fleet Innovator Nicky Cupp turns everyday pain points at Fraley & Schilling into opportunities for better technology and smarter processes.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Headshot of Adam Buttgenbach with a Pepsi-branded Tesla Semi in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 18, 2026

Adam Buttgenbach’s Approach to Electric Trucks: Start With Where They Fit

HDT Truck Fleet Innovator Adam Buttgenbach helped PepsiCo build one of North America’s largest EV fleets by focusing on where electric trucks make operational sense.

Read More →