Economic Watch: Retail Sales Surge, Up 4.3% Over Past Year
Retail sales in the U.S. jumped in October, according to Commerce Department figures released Tuesday, surpassing analysts’ expectations.

Retail sales in the U.S. jumped in October, according to Commerce Department figures released Tuesday, surpassing analysts’ expectations.
The 0.8% increase from the month before came as the department also upwardly revised September’s performance to show a 1% increase from August rather than the first reported 0.6% rise. This made for the largest two-month hike in at least the last two years, according to the Wall Street Journal.
When October retail sales are compared to the same time in 2015 they are up 4.3%.
Last month’s gain was helped by an increase sales of building materials in the wake of Hurricane Matthew, along with higher auto and gasoline sales. Sales by non-store retailers, including online retail outlets, continued to pick up strongly and were nearly 13% above year-ago levels in October.
So called “core retail sales,” which exclude autos, building materials, gasoline and food services, also increased 0.8% in October from the month before, following an upwardly revised 0.3% September gain. The performance in both these “core sales” and overall retail sales beat consensus estimates from analysts with hikes of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively.
The solid increase in October retail sales, particularly the better-than-expected gain in “core sales” along with upward revisions to prior months, provides a strong start to the fourth quarter, according to RBC Economics. The October report supports RBC's forecast for consumer spending to pick up to 2.4% from the 2.1% annual pace recorded in the third quarter.
“With help from continued employment growth, rising wages and accommodative financial conditions, consumers have been the only consistent source of gross domestic product growth this year,” said Josh Nye, RBC economist. “We look for another solid contribution in the fourth quarter, although some reversal of the third quarter’s surge in exports and less add from inventories is expected to leave overall GDP growth at a slightly slower 2.3% annualized rate in Q4, following the previous quarter’s 2.9% gain that was the strongest in two years.”
He said RBC’s forecast assumes consumer spending will continue to grow at a healthy clip in 2017, with potential upside risk if the incoming government follows through on plans to lower income taxes.
Despite the jump in retail sales, this doesn’t automatically mean retailers are going to be in a big rush to keep a high level of stock on their shelves – and that could spell caution for trucking companies.
In a separate report released Thursday, the Commerce Department said overall business inventories increased 0.1% in September, slower than the 0.2% gain in August. Also, retail inventories rose 0.2% in September, while wholesale inventories edged up just 0.1% as stockpiles held by manufacturers were unchanged.
This put the total business inventory to sales ratio for September at 1.38 down slightly from both August and September 2015.
According to the Wall Street Journal, some large retailers are hoping to avoid late holiday season discounting on prices and are looking at keeping their inventories lighter than in the past. The downside for them is that could reduce their revenues and could lead to lower sales.
More Fleet Management

What Geotab's New AI Connector Means for Fleets
Fleets can now ask their usual AI assistants questions about maintenance, safety, fuel use, and vehicle performance, using their live Geotab data, and take action on the answers without leaving their preferred AI tool.
Read More →
New C.H. Robinson Tool Opens Door to More Predictable Freight
BidBoardX lets carriers search, bid on, and secure committed freight opportunities through a single digital marketplace.
Read More →
New York City's Microhub Project is Delivering Results
Trucking, last-mile delivery companies, and environmental advocates like what they are seeing so far with New York's microhub program.
Read More →
Why Truck Detention Keeps Costing Fleets Time and Money
A 2024 ATRI study found detention affects nearly 40% of truckload stops and costs the industry more than $15 billion annually. Despite the toll on drivers, fleets, and supply chains, the problem remains stubbornly persistent.
Read More →
Time is Running Out to Apply for Exclusive HDT Event
Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange brings fleet managers and suppliers together for the deeper conversations that lead to ideas, partnerships, and solutions. Time is running out to apply for the September event.
Read More →
Amazon Launches Less-Than-Truckload Freight Offering for All Businesses
This launch is the latest addition to Amazon Supply Chain Services, a portfolio of supply chain capabilities from Amazon, including freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping.
Read More →
Import Cargo Volume to See Year-Over-Year Gain Again in June, Then Remain Below 2025 Levels Into Fall
After July, the report predicts a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.
Read More →
AUCTION OF EQUITY INTEREST IN HEAVY HAUL TRUCKING COMPANY!!
Mark your calendar: June 30, 2026 (10:00 a.m. PDT). A 37.5% ownership interest in MagnaTrans, LLC, a California limited liability company doing business as Magna Transportation Group, will be sold in an in-person and online auction to the highest bidder or bidders under Article 9 of the Uniform Commercial Code. The Rancho Cucamonga-based heavy haul and over-dimensional trucking company operates across California, Oregon, and Arizona.
Read More →
Volvo Trucks Adds Unattended Over-the-Air Software Update Capabilities
The latest evolution of Volvo’s over-the-air update technology allows software updates to run while trucks are parked, helping fleets keep vehicles current without disrupting operations.
Read More →How Waste Connections is Using Data, Telematics, and AI
How do you manage and maintain more than 18,000 connected trucks? Data. Lots of it.
Read More →

