January saw a slight decline in freight shipments compared to December, with freight expenditures essentially flat, according to January's Cass Freight Index Report.

The Cass Freight Index is based on a January 1990 base point of 1.00. The index is updated with monthly freight expenditures and shipment volumes from the entire Cass client base. January's shipments index was 1.046, while the expenditures index was 2.269.

Year over year, total freight expenditures were up 22.1%, but that comparison was misleading. Thanks to bad weather last year, January 2011 was the lowest point the Index reached in the past 18 months.

Freight expenditures have leveled off in recent months as the reduced shipment volume took pressure off capacity and rates stabilized, note Cass anlysts. Total freight spend has been relatively flat during the last several months, mirroring shipment volume, indicating that the rate increases that were prevalent for most of 2011 have slowed, too.

Although many economic indicators showed strength in the fourth quarter, this strength has not yet translated into a growth in freight shipments. The National Retail Federation is predicting a 3.4% rise in sales in 2012, and GDP is expected to rise about 2.3%. These developments should drive an increase in freight shipments by March.

North American freight volumes continued a seasonally normal, four‐month decline, falling by almost 1% in January. Year-over-year, January's shipment volume was 3.6% higher than in 2011.

As in 2010, expectations for strong year‐end sales led to inventory build‐ups. When those sales failed to materialize, inventories climbed even higher. Consumers pulled back on spending in December, with retail sales increasing only 0.1%.

Data within the Index is derived from $20 billion in freight transactions processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of 350 large shippers.