FTR reported that its Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) climbed to a record 20.4 in May. That’s the strongest reading since the company began tracking the metric, as carriers benefited from sharply improving freight rates and continued tight trucking capacity.

The May reading marks a significant jump from 11.6 in April and surpasses the previous record of 16.8, set in February 2021 during the pandemic freight boom.

The Bloomington, Indiana-based transportation intelligence firm said it expects the index to moderate somewhat in the coming months but remain firmly in positive territory.

"The market has clearly shifted in carriers' favor after an extended downturn," said Avery Vise, FTR's vice president of trucking.

Carriers Still Have Ground to Recover

While the record-setting index signals the strongest operating environment for trucking in years, Vise cautioned that many fleets are still recovering financially from the prolonged freight recession.

"A record high for the TCI obviously is notable, but it is also a good occasion for us to acknowledge the obvious: Robust market conditions have developed recently and rapidly after several years of tough going for most of the trucking industry," Vise said. "Many carriers have a long way to go to repair their finances and return to consistent and acceptable margins."

According to FTR, today's stronger freight pricing has been fueled less by booming freight demand than by constrained truck capacity and several market disruptions.

Vise pointed to continued pressure on foreign drivers, tighter capacity and more recent efforts by carriers to recover higher fuel costs as key factors behind the sharp increase in freight rates.

He added that freight demand itself remains relatively soft outside a handful of sectors.

“Except for a few pockets of freight strength due largely to massive investment in artificial intelligence, the sharp recovery in freight rates is principally a function of already-tight capacity followed by a series of disruptions," Vise said. "Broad-based volume growth remains elusive, and the market rebound likely will hit a ceiling soon unless freight demand strengthens considerably."

What the Trucking Conditions Index Measures

FTR's Trucking Conditions Index combines five major market indicators into a single measure of trucking industry health:

• Freight volumes
• Freight rates
• Fleet capacity
• Fuel prices
• Financing costs

Positive readings indicate favorable conditions for carriers, while negative readings signal a difficult operating environment. Readings near zero represent a neutral market, while double-digit positive or negative values suggest significant shifts in industry conditions.

The latest analysis appears in FTR's July Trucking Update, which also examines how increased regulatory enforcement could influence trucking market conditions in the months ahead.