Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: GDP Growth Revised Upward, Durable Goods Fall Again

Growth in the overall American economy in the final quarter of last year improved by double the government's initial estimate, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report released Friday. A separate reports shows the country’s manufacturing sector is still sluggish but housing continues to do well.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
March 25, 2016
Economic Watch: GDP Growth Revised Upward, Durable Goods Fall Again

 

4 min to read


Growth in the overall American economy in the final quarter of last year improved by double the government's initial estimate, according to a U.S. Commerce Department report released Friday. A separate reports shows the country’s manufacturing sector is still sluggish but housing continues to do well.

The gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4% in this third estimate, rather than the 1% pace reported a month ago and well ahead of the anemic 0.7% rate of the original estimate released in January.

Ad Loading...

This compares to a 2% rate of increase in the third quarter of 2015, 3.9% in the second quarter and just 0.6% in the first quarter of last year. The average pace in the first three quarters of last year was 2.2%, stronger than the fourth quarter rate.

Why the revision? “The general picture of economic growth remains largely the same," the report explained, but "personal consumption expenditures increased more than previously estimated.”

The GDP increased at a annual rate of 2.4% for all of 2015, the same as it was in last month’s estimate.

Ad Loading...

Before the latest numbers were released, RBC Economic said, “We continue to expect that stronger domestic household spending growth will result in a pickup in gross domestic product growth in the first quarter of 2016 from the 1.0% gain posted in the fourth quarter of 2015, although a continued drag from net trade and indications of weaker than expected business investment spending leave the monthly data pointing to a slightly smaller 1.9% gain in the quarter than the 2.2% increase that we had previously expected.”

Durables Still Part of Weak Manufacturing Picture

Meantime, a separate report released Thursday by the department shows continuing lower new orders and shipments for manufactured goods designed to last at least three years, known as durable goods.

The 2.8% drop in durable goods orders in February from the month before follows a downwardly revised 4.8% improvement in January, which was the first hike out of the last four months. Year-over-year, orders remains positive, up 1.8%.

Last month’s decline was driven by a 6.2% drop in new transportation orders. An indicator of future business investment, new orders minus those for defense and aircraft, fell 1.8% in February after advancing a downwardly revised 3.1% in January and falling 3.5% in December 2015.

The corresponding shipments measure declined by 1.1% in February. That follows January's downwardly revised 1.3% drop, first reported as a 0.4% decline, leaving the average measure for the two months at an annual rate that’s 7.2% below its fourth-quarter 2015 average, according to RBC Economics.

Ad Loading...

Overall shipments of durable goods fell 0.9% in February. That number is down two out of the past thee months. It was led by the transportation sector, which saw shipments fall 0.6%.

Durable goods orders remain under pressure, with three of the past four months posting negative growth, reinforcing an ongoing trend of weak capital investment, according to Lindsey Piegza, chief economist for Stifel Fixed Income.

“Businesses remain hesitant to invest in equipment and structures, as well as high-wage, full-time employees during a still-fragile recovery,” she said. “Amid tepid domestic and international demand, a strong U.S. dollar, and lingering uncertainty exacerbated by the upcoming Presidential election, not to mention ample regulation hanging overhead, many businesses remain on the sideline. Of course without business investment and expansion, there is little expectation for additional job creation and wage growth, which continues to keep the U.S. consumer restrained.”

This report follows one on the nation’s wider manufacturing sector for this month showing a slight uptick in activity, but growth remains weak as it has since the start of the year.

New Home Sales Bounce Back A Little

One area of the economy that continues to perform well is the homebuilding and sales sector.

Ad Loading...

Sales of newly built, single-family homes rose 2% in February from an upwardly revised January reading to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 512,000 units, according to the Commerce Department.

“The February bounce back in sales is in line with our builders’ reports that the housing market continues to recover at a slow but steady pace,” said Ed Brady, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

January’s level was also revised upward to 502,000 units from the previously reported 494,000 units.

The February increase was driven entirely by new home sales rising 38.5% in the West. Sales dropped 4.1% in the South, 17.9% in the Midwest and 24.2% in the Northeast.

“While builders contend with industry headwinds such as labor shortages, relatively low mortgage interest rates and solid job growth should keep the housing market moving ahead as we enter the spring buying season,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Ad Loading...

New homes sales account for about one-tenth of the U.S. housing market.

The report follows the earlier reported disappointing performance of existing home sales in Februar,y where activity fell sharply, with weakness concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest.

“With today’s report showing similar weakness in these regions, it is likely that the late-January winter storm may have hampered homebuyer activity over the first two months of the year,” said Laura Cooper, economist at RBC Economic. “A return to seasonable weather conditions along with still-supportive borrowing conditions and ongoing hiring gains should see some of the weakness in overall sales activity reverse as the spring housing market kicks off.”

More Fleet Management

Illustration of Penske day cab backed into loading dock with graphic of generic charts and graphs and a penske logo.
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeSeptember 17, 2026

Why Private Fleets Are Taking More Freight

Private fleets are putting their own trucks on demanding customers and high-cost lanes as companies seek greater control over service, costs, and capacity.

Read More →
A woman holding a tablet with a screen showing rectangles of various colors
SponsoredSeptember 16, 2026

Color Match Smarter: Tools That Restore & Perform

For fleet managers and collision repair professionals keeping heavy-duty trucks on the road, getting the color right the first time isn't just about appearance — it's about efficiency, turnaround time, and bottom-line results. Discover how today's digital color tools are transforming the repair process from guesswork to precision.

Read More →
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo
Fleet Managementby StaffSeptember 15, 2026

FMCSA Pauses Biennial-Update Enforcement Amid Motus Transition

Carriers whose updates were due on or after June 1 have more time, while FMCSA works to stabilize its new registration system and warns of phishing sites impersonating its new carrier registration system, Motus.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Geotab Whitepaper Cargo Theft Cover
SponsoredSeptember 14, 2026

2026 Blueprint for Countering Smarter Supply Chain Theft

Cargo theft is no longer just the cost of doing business. It's a multi-billion-dollar criminal enterprise exploiting vulnerabilities across your fleet, drivers, and supply chain.

Read More →
A monitor with a bar graph with a person sitting next to it wearing a headset.
SponsoredSeptember 1, 2026

How Telematics Improves Visibility, Control, and Performance in Refrigerated Fleets

Explore how telematics help refrigerated fleets improve visibility, uptime, efficiency, compliance, and cargo protection across connected cold chain operations.

Read More →
Graphic with U.S. and Canadian flags over background illustration of an ink-stamp that says Tariffs.
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeAugust 24, 2026

What the U.S.-Canada Trade War Means for Trucking

Escalating U.S.-Canada tariffs could disrupt cross-border freight, reduce truck volumes, raise costs, and create new uncertainty for carriers on both sides of the border.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseAugust 24, 2026

What Are Trucking’s Top Concerns for 2026?

The American Transportation Research Institute wants to know what's worrying trucking fleet managers, drivers, and other stakeholders in its annual Industry Issues survey.

Read More →
Four men in suits on the National Mall with giant video screen showing capitol building in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 24, 2026

American Trucking Associations Looks for a New Leader

ATA President and CEO Chris Spear abruptly left his job at the association on August 21, at a pivotal time for the trucking industry.

Read More →
The Cyber Stop column header with photo of a smiling driver in truck with a laptop and a wi-fi icon
Fleet ManagementAugust 21, 2026

Public Wi-Fi Cybersecurity Risks: How Truck Drivers and Fleets Can Protect Their Data

Public Wi-Fi can expose truck drivers and fleets to credential theft, malware, and other cyber threats. Here’s how to reduce the risk on the road.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Woman in white blazer superimposed on background showing a row of Fraley & Schilling truck, plus the HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026 logo
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 19, 2026

For Nicky Cupp, Fleet Innovation Starts With Frustration

HDT Truck Fleet Innovator Nicky Cupp turns everyday pain points at Fraley & Schilling into opportunities for better technology and smarter processes.

Read More →