The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 1.4% in August on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis, following a 0.2% decline in July.
"July and August results indicate that the PCI will decline in the third quarter suggesting GDP growth of zero to one percent," said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "What we're experiencing is the 'new normal,' where the U.S. economy will continue to stumble forward until a new growth engine is identified. Essentially, the economy is in need of an innovation burst."
On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was up 0.4% in August. While the YOY growth trend continues, this is down from the 1.0% YOY increase in July. Over the past four months, the YOY increase of the PCI has fallen below 1.0% compared to 3%-plus in the first four months of the year.
The weakness in the PCI over the last several months called for a 0% change in the July Industrial Production. The initial release of 0.9% was stronger, although subject to revisions.
Due to the continued weakness evident in the PCI, the forecast for August Industrial Production is a 0.26% decline when released on September 15.
For more information: www.ceridianindex.com
"July and August results indicate that the PCI will decline in the third quarter suggesting GDP growth of zero to one percent," said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "What we're experiencing is the 'new normal,' where the U.S. economy will continue to stumble forward until a new growth engine is identified. Essentially, the economy is in need of an innovation burst."
On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was up 0.4% in August. While the YOY growth trend continues, this is down from the 1.0% YOY increase in July. Over the past four months, the YOY increase of the PCI has fallen below 1.0% compared to 3%-plus in the first four months of the year.
The weakness in the PCI over the last several months called for a 0% change in the July Industrial Production. The initial release of 0.9% was stronger, although subject to revisions.
Due to the continued weakness evident in the PCI, the forecast for August Industrial Production is a 0.26% decline when released on September 15.
For more information: www.ceridianindex.com
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