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Despite an overall positive truck sales forecast for 2019, tariffs and trade wars could be stumbling blocks that trip up the economy and send freight and truck sales downward, said two longtime industry analysts.
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FTR has raised its 2019 forecast for North American Class 8 truck factory shipments to 350,000 units. It has also increased its forecast for U.S. commercial trailer production to 310,000 units
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October Class 8 orders were above 40,000 units for the eighth month in a row, but two different companies reporting the data put rather different spins on their analysis of the numbers.
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A strong September meant that North American Class 8 net orders set another record in the third quarter of 2018, breaking the record set in the first quarter of the year. FTR says it often faces skepticism about how fleets can possibly fill these trucks.
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September trailers orders shattered the previous record, reaching more than 56,000 units, according to preliminary numbers reported by FTR and ACT. That tops the previous high from October 2014 by over 10,000 trailers.
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ACT Research expects Class 8 truck orders to slip to a still robust 42,800 units, and when paired with record order highs in July and August, FTR expects the third quarter of 2018 to set an all-time record.
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FTR has added Intermodal Dash software to its newly released Intel•cast freight-forecasting platform.
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FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index spiked in July reflecting the pro-carrier freight environment that is likely to remain throughout 2018.
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Rising overall retail sales — both e-commerce and traditional — and the pressure to deliver products more quickly has led to more truckload and LTL delivery points, not fewer, resulting in greater pressure on capacity.
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Trailer orders in August are expected to exceed projections for the second straight month, showcasing just how hot equipment sales have remained so far in 2018.
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