The Conference Board reported that its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2% in March on top of a 0.6% decline over the prior two months.

Often, three consecutive declines are a signal of an imminent decline in spending. But not this time, says Jim Haughey, Newport Communications senior economist. "This is pre-war data," Haughey said. "War concerns erased the pickup in the leading indicator that occurred last fall. Now there are already signs in equity, labor and retail markets of a strengthening economy. It is likely there will be enough improvement to get the economic growth pace back to the about 3% annual rate before the impending war appeared last fall.
"Carefully divide the economic data released over the next few months into pre- and postwar sets," Haughey warns. "Only the postwar data will set the tone for the economy through the summer."
He said the first hard April data will be for employment. It will be a pre- and post-war mix because it comes from a survey taken in the second week of April. A little later, retail sales for the whole month of April will be primarily postwar data. Mid- to late April survey data on consumer confidence and manufacturing activity, out if the first week of May, will be the first postwar readings of the economic environment.