With most holiday merchandise already on hand and tariffs continuing to rise, monthly import cargo volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to fall below the 2 million TEU mark for the rest of the year, according to the Global Port Tracker report released October 8 by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

(TEU is Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent.)

“This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. 

“New sectoral tariffs continue to be announced, but most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”

The latest tariffs — 25% on upholstered furniture regardless of country and the same rate on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities — are set to take effect next week and increase in January. 

And a tariff increase on imports from China that was delayed by 90 days in August is scheduled to go into effect Nov. 10, unless a deal is reached or President Donald Trump decides on another delay.

“Ongoing volatility in U.S. tariff policy is creating significant economic uncertainty, with trade volumes expected to see unpredictable shifts over the next four to six months,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett.

“Many large companies preemptively imported goods to build up inventories, but as those stockpiles are depleted, the full inflationary impact of the tariffs will become apparent.”

What the Global Port Tracker is Forecasting

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.32 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in August. That was down 2.9% from July’s 2.39 million TEU — the peak month for the year — but up 0.1% year over year.

Ports have not yet reported numbers for September, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.12 million TEU, down 6.8% year over year.

October is forecast at 1.97 million TEU, down 12.3% year over year, and November at 1.75 million TEU, down 19.2%. December is forecast at 1.72 million TEU, down 19.4% year over year for the slowest month since 1.62 million TEU in March 2023.

While the falling monthly totals are related to tariffs, the year-over-year percentage declines are both because of this year’s early peak season and because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEU, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 24.79 million TEU, down 2.9% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.

January 2026 is forecast at 1.87 million TEU, down 16.1% year over year, and February 2026 is forecast at 1.77 million TEU, down 12.8%.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.