GDP Revised Up For Final Quarter Of 2001
The U.S. economy did better in the fourth quarter than first thought. The Commerce Department released figures this morning showing the nation’s Gross Domestic Product grew at a 1.4% rate in the final quarter of last yea
The U.S. economy did better in the fourth quarter than first thought. The Commerce Department released figures this morning showing the nation’s Gross Domestic Product grew at a 1.4% rate in the final quarter of last year
, a big increase from their original estimate of 0.2%.
For all of 2001, this measure of the nation’s total output of goods and services increased 1.2%, the weakest performance since a 0.5% drop in 1991.
This change should be interpreted as evidence that December was very strong, says Newport Communications Senior Economist Jim Haughey.
“Look for growth of at least 1.5% in the current quarter, because January started the quarter well above the average of the previous quarter," he says. "The first reports for 2002 are very strong. Home sales hit a record level in January. Consumer confidence fell a bit but was still high. The pace of layoffs continues to decline. And sales of durable manufacturing goods, the most cyclical part of the economy, rose at more than a 30% annual rate.”
Haughey says the principal upward revisions were for consumer spending and lower imports, because the latter is a subtraction in calculating GDP.
“With hindsight, the much publicized 2001-2002 recession turns out to be the smallest one ever," Haughey says, "with GDP declining only 0.3% in the third quarter. Without the September 11th disruptions to the economy, there would have been no recession."
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