Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Leading Indicators, E-Commerce Sales Post Impressive Gains

Three new economic reports add to increasing evidence the U.S. economy will have a better overall first quarter of the year than the final three months of 2016.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
Read Evan's Posts
February 17, 2017
Economic Watch: Leading Indicators, E-Commerce Sales Post Impressive Gains

 

3 min to read


Three new economic reports add to increasing evidence the U.S. economy will have a better overall first quarter of the year than the final three months of 2016.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6% in January to 125.5, following a 0.5% increase in December and a 0.2% increase in November.

Ad Loading...

"If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased sharply again in January, pointing to a positive economic outlook in the first half of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at the private research group. “The January gain was broad-based among the leading indicators. If this trend continues, the U.S. economy may even accelerate in the near term.”

The LEI is made of 10 components, including data from manufacturing, housing and consumer expectations. The January improvement was described by Well Fargo Securities as “’broad-based with only a single component subtracting from the headline figure, non-defense capital goods minus aircraft."

E-Commerce Sales Jump

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed e-commerce sales increased in both the fourth quarter of 2016 and for all of last year.

They rose 1.9% in the final three months of 2016 from the third quarter. The fourth quarter 2016 e-commerce estimate was up 14.3% from the same time in 2015, far outpacing the 4.1% hike in total retail sales during the same period.

Total e-commerce for 2016 was at $394.9 billion, an increase of 15.1% from 2015, while total retail sales in 2016 increased 2.9%. E-commerce sales in 2016 accounted for 8.1% of total sales, up from 7.3% in 2015.

Ad Loading...

According to some analysts and recent reports, the increasing rise of e-commerce has already led to changes in how the trucking industry does business and is expected to bring even more in the years to come.

Housing Starts Ease But Remain Strong

These reports follow one from the Commerce Department showing housing starts in January dropped 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.246 million units. But that's still slightly better than analysts’ expectations.

Multifamily production fell 10.2% to 423,000 units after an unusually high December 2016 reading, whereas single-family starts ticked up 1.9% to 823,000 units.

“A settling of housing production is in line with what we are hearing from builders, that they are largely optimistic about current market conditions but still face supply-side headwinds and regulatory hurdles,” said Granger MacDonald, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.

Overall permit issuance, an indicator of future building levels, rose 4.6% in January to 1.285 million units, its highest level in more than a year. Single-family permits fell 2.7% to 808,000 units, while multifamily permits increased 19.8% to 477,000 units.

Ad Loading...

“Increasingly volatile as of late, construction activity remains in positive territory on an annual basis, despite a back and forth month-to-month,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income.

She noted that the recent rise in mortgage rates, plus a warning from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen of the Fed potentially raising rates, may restrain the housing market and other sectors sensitive to interest rates.

“After all, consumers continue to face moderate labor market conditions with slowing wage growth, making it increasingly more difficult for the average American, particularly first-time homebuyers, to afford a home purchase,” Piegza said.

Late last month the Commerce Department released numbers that showed the widest measure of U.S. economic growth, GDP, slowed in the final quarter of last year and for all of 2016 -- though much of it wasn’t due to domestic weakness but rather a surge of imports.

The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in October through December, down from the 3.5% pace in the third quarter of 2016.

Ad Loading...

However, since that time there have been reports showing so far this that employment remains strong while manufacturing is increasing and retail sales are surging, causing many analysts to forecast the first quarter of 2017 will see an overall improvement in the GDP.

More Fleet Management

Daimler-Class8 partnership.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 2, 2026

DTNA Partners with Class8 to Expand Digital Services for Freightliner Owner-Operators

A new partnership brings free wireless ELD service plus load optimization and dispatch planning tools to fourth- and fifth-generation Freightliner Cascadia customers, with broader model availability planned through 2026.

Read More →
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Reducing Fleet Downtime with Advanced Diagnostics

This white paper examines how advanced commercial vehicle diagnostics can significantly reduce fleet downtime as heavy duty vehicles become more complex. It shows how Autel’s CV diagnostic tools enable in-house troubleshooting, preventive maintenance, and faster repairs, helping fleets cut emissions-related downtime, reduce dealer dependence, and improve overall vehicle uptime and operating costs.

Read More →
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Stop Watching Footage, Start Driving Results

6 intelligent dashcam tactics to improve safety and boost ROI

Read More →
Ad Loading...
M&A illustration with Werner and FirstFleet logos
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 29, 2026

Werner Expands Dedicated Fleet Nearly 50% With FirstFleet Acquisition

The $283 million acquisition of FirstFleet makes Werner the fifth-largest dedicated carrier and pushes more than half of its revenue into contract freight.

Read More →
Bobit Business Media B2X Rewards.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseJanuary 29, 2026

Bobit Business Media Launches B2X Rewards Engagement Program

B2X Rewards is a new, gamified rewards program aimed at driving deeper engagement across BBM’s digital platforms, newsletters, events, and TheFleetSource.com.

Read More →
Trucking Trends series graphic
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 29, 2026

AI is Reshaping Trucking in 2026, from the Back Office to the Shop

Trucking’s biggest technology shifts in 2026 have one thing in common: artificial intelligence.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Column graphic illustration with Deborah Lockridge head shot and a small fleet truck in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 27, 2026

Why Small Trucking Fleets Are Still Standing [Commentary]

Why discipline, relationships, and focus have mattered more than size for smaller trucking fleets during the freight recession.

Read More →
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 23, 2026

Cargo Theft Is Surging. A Bill in Congress Could Help. [Video]

Cargo theft losses hit $725 million last year. In this HDT Talks Trucking Short Take video, Scott Cornell explains how a bill moving in Congress could bring federal tracking, enforcement, and prosecutions to help address the problem.

Read More →
CargoNet infographic showing 2025 cargo theft trends
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 22, 2026

Cargo Theft Losses Jump 60% in 2025 as Criminals Target Higher-Value Freight

Cargo theft activity across North America held relatively steady in 2025 — but the financial damage did not, as ever-more-sophisticated organized criminal groups shifted their cargo theft focus to higher-value shipments.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Phillips Connect -- McLeod smart trailer TMS.
Fleet ManagementJanuary 22, 2026

Phillips Connect, McLeod Integrate Smart Trailer Data into TMS Workflows

A new partnership between Phillips Connect and McLeod allows fleets to view trailer health, location, and cargo status inside the same McLeod workflows used for planning, dispatch, and execution.

Read More →