Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: GDP Slows on Trade as Other Indicators Stay Strong

The widest measure of U.S. economic growth slowed in not just the final quarter of last year but for all of 2016. However, that performance wasn’t so much due to weakness here at home.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
January 27, 2017
Economic Watch: GDP Slows on Trade as Other Indicators Stay Strong

 

5 min to read


The widest measure of U.S. economic growth slowed in not just the final quarter of last year but for all of 2016, according to a preliminary Commerce Department report released Friday. However, that performance wasn’t so much due to weakness here at home.

The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in October through December, down from the 3.5% pace in the third quarter of 2016, and less than a 2.2% increase expected by a poll of analysts.  

Ad Loading...

The downturn reflected an acceleration in imports, a deceleration in personal spending as well as federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, increased state and local government spending, and more nonresidential fixed investment, according to the department.

Also, a drop in exports during the fourth quarter was the biggest in nearly two years with trade shaving off 1.7 percentage points in fourth quarter GDP growth after it added nearly 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter.

For all of 2016 the GDP increased 1.6% compared to 2015, when it grew by 2.6% from the year before. Last year also marked its weakest annual performance since 2011.

Ad Loading...

Following a disappointing first half of 2016, domestic growth picked up momentum from June to September, according to Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza.

“The improvement over the summer months, however, proved short-lived as growth declined once again heading into the final quarter of the year,” she said. “Supplemented in good part by a sizable rebuilding of inventories, investment appears to have gained some ground particularly in terms of intellectual property and equipment spending, a more positive theme that could continue to carry forward especially amid a pro-growth agenda out of Washington.”

Capital Spending Increases Despite Fall in Durable Goods 

The report was released at the same time as a separate one from the Commerce Department showing new orders for manufactured durable goods fell again in December while shipments posted another gain as a measure of business investment moved higher.

New orders fell 4.8% from November, the second straight monthly drop. However, when transportation orders are excluded, which declined 2.2%, new orders increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7%.

On a more encouraging note, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 0.8% in December, following gains of 1.5% in November and 0.5% in October. Shipments of these items rebounded 0.7% following a 0.5% November decline.

Ad Loading...

Shipments of manufactured durable goods increased 1.4% following a November gain of 0.3%, the third hike in the past four months.

While headline orders remain in negative territory, business investment appears to be gaining footing, which could be a positive indication for 2017, if said growth can be maintained, said Piegza.

“Businesses at this point are reportedly optimistic with a series of pro-growth proposals from the Trump administration focused on reducing the cost and regulatory burden on consumers and businesses,” she said. “The more recent agenda, however, of the White House on stricter trade agreements and potentially introducing large tariffs or taxes on exports into the U.S. could more than offset the gains from other areas of tax and regulatory relief.”

New Home Sales Fell in December Despite Better 2016

This follows reports from the day before showing sales of new homes tumbled in December while a measure of overall expected economic conditions showed a healthy improvement.

Sales of new single-family homes fell 10.4% in the final month of 2016 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000, according to the Commerce Department. That marks the biggest one-month drop since March 2015 and is much larger than a consensus estimate from economists.

Ad Loading...

Despite this, sales for all of last year rose 12.2 from 2015 to 563,000 units, the highest annual rate since 2007 and the fifth straight year of growth. This compares to the early 2000s and before the Great Recession, when new home sales were more than 1 million annually for consecutive years.

“We are encouraged by the growth in the housing sector last year, and by the fact that builders increased inventory by 10% in anticipation of future business,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. “NAHB’s forecast calls for continued upward momentum this year, with housing starts expected to rise 10 percent over the course of 2017.”

Some analysts are blaming the monthly downturn to the natural volatility of the home-building market, especially during the winter months, as well as rising prices for cutting into demand.

Regionally, new home sales increased 48.4% in the Northeast. Sales fell 1.3% in the West, 12.6% in the South and 41% in the Midwest.

Economic Indicators of What’s To Come Remain Good

Meantime, a measure of economic conditions three to six months in the future showed continued strengthening.

Ad Loading...

The Leading Economic Index for the U.S. from the private research group The Conference Board increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% increase in November and a 0.2% increase in October. The latest reading met a consensus estimate from Wall Street analysts.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “December’s large gain was mainly driven by improving sentiment about the outlook and suggests the business cycle still showed strong momentum in the final months of 2016.”

This follows a report from Wednesday showing sales of existing homes in the U.S. declined in December while moving higher for all of last year as the nation’s manufacturing sector began 2017 on a strong note.

More Fleet Management

TEN disaster prep.
Fleet ManagementMay 1, 2026

How Fleets Can Avoid Equipment Blind Spots in Disaster Response

When the unexpected happens, how you react to, and deal with operational blind spots is critical. Here’s how to keep you recovery on track, when nothing is normal.

Read More →
Illustration of cybersecurity images with "The Cyber Stop" text
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensApril 30, 2026

AI Security Risks for Trucking Fleets: What to Know About Deepfakes and Agentic AI

As fleets adopt artificial intelligence for routing, maintenance, and load matching, new security risks are emerging. Learn where the vulnerabilities are and how to put the right controls in place.

Read More →
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo

FMCSA’s Motus System Is Coming. What Fleets Need to Know Now

The long-awaited registration system promises a single portal — and tighter fraud controls.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
CargoNet 2026 Qi report.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 24, 2026

Cargo Theft Incidents Fall in Q1, but Organized Crime and Impersonation Drive New Risks

CargoNet reports fewer supply chain crime events to start 2026. But losses hold steady as organized crime shifts tactics toward impersonation schemes and high-value goods.

Read More →
Graphic with light bulbs, HDT Truck Fleet Innovators logo, and the word Nominations
Fleet ManagementApril 24, 2026

Nominations Open for HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026

Heavy Duty Trucking is searching for forward-looking leaders at trucking fleets as nominations for HDT’s Truck Fleet Innovators 2026. Deadline is May 15.

Read More →
Illustration with trojan horse and lock with inside of cargo container in background
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 23, 2026

New Trojan Driver Cargo Theft Scam Bypasses Carrier Vetting Systems

Cargo theft rings plant operatives as drivers inside legitimate, fully vetted carriers, then execute coordinated thefts that look like a traditional straight theft from the outside.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
ATA Truck Tonnage Index March 2026.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 22, 2026

March Truck Tonnage Posts Strongest Annual Gain Since 2022

A modest sequential increase capped the strongest quarterly performance in years, signaling continued freight momentum in early 2026.

Read More →
Toll road.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 22, 2026

Ohio Turnpike Targets $5.2 Million in Unpaid Tolls from Trucking Firms

More than 300 carriers across 26 states have been sent to collections as the Ohio Turnpike cracks down on toll evasion and delinquent payments.

Read More →
Illustration with ATRI logo and square blocks spelling out "research"
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeApril 20, 2026

'Beyond Compliance,' Regulations, Driver Coaching on ATRI’s 2026 Research List

The American Transportation Research Institute will examine driver coaching, regulatory impacts — including the "Beyond Compliance" concept —and weather disruptions that shape trucking operations.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Brian Antonellis, senior vice president, fleet operations, Fleet Advantage.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 17, 2026

Fleet Advantage's Brian Antonellis on the Growing Need to Replace Old Trucks

Fleet Advantage's Brian Antonellis says it's time for fleets to get back to the fundamentals of good maintenance practices. And that includes replacing older, inefficient equipment.

Read More →