A combination of factors that are fueling a rebound in demand for Class 8 trucks could push production over 150,000 vehicles for 2010, according to ACT Research Co.


ACT says third quarter earnings show fleet profitability is improving even as economic growth moderates. That, combined with firmer used truck prices and growing concern over the average age of the national fleet, suggests a growing number of freight haulers will have both the need and the ability to reinvest in equipment.

"Our forecast for 2010 has stayed in a narrow range for the past 15 months as our model predicted a slow economic recovery and heavy-duty demand still well below normal replacement," said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst with ACT Research. "While headwinds make a full-blown economic recovery unlikely before 2012, recent trends in the transportation and commercial vehicle markets point toward demand for new vehicles building throughout 2011 and 2012."

In the latest release of the ACT North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT projects full-year 2010 production of Class 8 vehicles approximately 151,000 units, up 27 percent from a weak 2009, but still well below normal replacement demand. ACT forecasts that demand will continue to ramp up for the next two years, with production in 2012 exceeding 300,000 units. The forecast for medium-duty (Classes 5-7) production is more muted, growing 15 percent in 2010 and 14 percent in 2011 due to the slow recovery in the construction and housing sectors.

More info: ACT Research Co.