The American Trucking Assns. has released its U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2016.

In a press release, the ATA said the forecast claims trucking will increase its share of the nation’s freight pool and continue to dominate freight movement into the next decade.
According to the ATA, the forecast reports on the present and future of the entire U.S. freight transportation industry and predicts growth for most sectors, greater cooperation between modes over the next 10 years, and an even greater role for trucking in moving the nation’s economy.
“Trucking is big and getting bigger,” ATA President and CEO Bill Graves said, “and trucks will remain, far and away, the dominant mode in transporting general commodities. Our share of total freight revenue will approach 88% by the end of the forecast period.”
Trucking also will increase total annual tonnage to 13 billion tons, giving it 69.1% of the total tonnage market by 2016. Solid performance of the U.S. economy, mainly due to robust consumer spending and a revival in manufacturing, drove motor carrier traffic forward last year, the report said.
“Trucking by its very nature is more flexible than other modes and is better able to respond quickly to meet the needs of the marketplace, maintaining its dominant role in freight transport,” Graves said.
The forecast also predicts growth in rail intermodal and air transport. Although neither mode will have more than 2% of the total tonnage market share by 2016, these two modes represent the fastest-growing segments over this time and highlight the importance of intermodal movements in the future, the report says.
Overall rail tonnage is estimated to reach 2.56 billion tons in 2016, up from 2.06 billion tons in 2004, giving it 13.6% of the total tonnage market. Rail intermodal service, driven by higher merchandise import and export volumes and domestic manufacturing, will continue to lead to growth in the use of domestic containers and new investment in intermodal infrastructure and equipment.
Although trucks will remain the dominant mode of freight transport, as the U.S. becomes more of a finished goods manufacturer, importing more semi-finished products that go through their final stage of production in the United States, ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said rail intermodal will become more important to trucking. Increased use of rail intermodal, for example, will benefit local and short-haul carriers, which provide drayage. Rail intermodal revenue is expected to grow to $19 billion by 2016 from $8.6 billion last year.
Air freight and express traffic is forecast to rise to 31.6 million tons in 2016, up from 18.1 million tons in 2004. “The prospects for air cargo are good considering economic growth is projected to average between 3% and 3.5% a year during the 2005-2016 period,” Costello said, noting that “waterborne transport and pipelines, meanwhile, can be expected to enjoy satisfactory growth.”