The American Transportation Research Institute analyzed more than 580,000 individual truck driver records and identified more than 25 different violations and convictions that increased the likelihood of future crashes, five of which increased future crash likelihood by over 100%.

Truck Driver Behaviors Linked to Future Crashes

Five behaviors have consistently been strong indicators of future crash involvement across three or more reports. Based on a comparative assessment of ATRI’s four crash predictor reports, calculating the median likelihood, the top five behaviors include:

1. Reckless driving

2. Failure to use/improper signal

3. Past Crash

4. Failure to Yield to the right-of way

5. Improper or erratic lane changes

This year, the top behaviors were:

Failure to Yield to the Right-Of-Way

If a truck driver has a violation for the failure to yield to the right-of-way there is a 141% increase in the likelihood of a future crash, a nearly 40% increase from 2018 to 2022.

Failure to Use/Improper Use of a Signal

If a truck driver has a conviction for the failure to use, or improperly using, a signal there is a 116% increase in the likelihood of a future crash, a nearly 42% increase from 2018 to 2022.

Prior Crash

Simply having a previous crash increased a truck driver’s probability of having a future crash by 113%, 28% higher than previous ATRI Crash Predictor reports, according to the Predicting Truck Crash Involvement research.

Reckless Driving

If a truck driver has a violation for reckless driving there is a 104% increase in the likelihood of a future crash, a nearly 9% decrease from 2018 to 2022.

Failure to Obey Traffic Sign

If a truck driver has a conviction for the failure to obey a traffic sign there is a 85% increase in the likelihood of a future crash.

Nine other violation categories had a statistically significant relationship with future crashes, with increased crash likelihoods between 31 and 53%. Twelve other conviction categories had a statistically significant relationship with future crashes, with the majority above 50 percent increased likelihood of a future crash.

Drivers with any out-of-service violation were 29% more likely than their peers to be involved in a future crash, and drivers with a moving violation were 43% more likely to be involved in a future crash. Any conviction increased future crash likelihood by 46%.

“Having a science-based model for predicting crashes is one of the most important tools the trucking industry can have,” said American Trucking Associations Vice President of Safety Policy Dan Horvath in a press release. “ATRI’s Crash Predictor research allows carriers to target and monitor those truck driver behaviors that matter most. With truck crashes increasing, there is no better time to have this data in our hands.”

10 Top Tier States for Truck Safety

ATRI’s report includes an updated list of the 10 Top Tier States for truck safety, ranked by the relationship between traffic enforcement inspections and crashes.

Washington, Indiana, New Mexico and California have ranked in the top 10 since the initial report in 2005. Georgia, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts joined the top ten for the first time in this year’s analysis, while Iowa dropped out of the top ten for the first time.

Here are the top states:

1. Washington

2. Indiana

3. New Mexico

4. Arizona

5. Massachusetts

6. Georgia

7. Pennsylvania

8. Illinois

9. California

10. Michigan

About ATRI’s Crash Predictor Research

ATRI’s Crash Predictor research, originally published in 2005 with updates in 2011 and 2018, designed and tested a predictive model that identified statistically significant relationships between truck driver safety behaviors and future crash probability.  The 2022 report uses the same statistical methods, and is based on more than 580,000 individual truck driver records.