Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

The Slowing Economy: How It Will Impact Trucking

Motor carrier employment (seasonally adjusted) fell 5,000 jobs to 1.834 million in May, after 42 consecutive months of employment increases totaling 198,000 jobs. Is this the first sign of slower growth in the economy and in

by Staff
May 26, 2000
2 min to read


Motor carrier employment (seasonally adjusted) fell 5,000 jobs to 1.834 million in May, after 42 consecutive months of employment increases totaling 198,000 jobs. Is this the first sign of slower growth in the economy and in freight volume?
Probably. Trucking employment should fall, given the weak reports for total employment and consumer spending in May. It is possible that the May decline will be revised away next month, since total employment in May was reported to have fallen an improbable 116,000 jobs, excluding temporary Census employees. But if not May, it will be June or July when significantly slower growth hits the trucking market.
This will be because the 5.4% GDP growth rate in the first quarter is widely expected to be halved this quarter and then to stay around 3% for several more quarters as the full impact of the 2% increase in credit costs hits the economy.

How else does the environment for trucking change with slower economic growth? These changes will be slow and gradual but will accumulate to be significant.
* New equipment prices will rise more slowly with "deals" available.
* Used equipment prices, as usual, will be hit even harder.
* The costs of recruiting and retaining long-haul drivers will ease. Thank residential construction contractors for boosting driver supply as they reduce the size of their work crews.
* The growth of imports through coastal ports will slow significantly from a 15-20% annual rate recently to less than 10%. The import surge was fueled by the 8% appreciation of the dollar over the last year. A period of slower growth in the U.S. will cut the inflow of short-term capital, which will cause the dollar to depreciate, making imports more expensive.

More Fleet Management

Illustration of cybersecurity images with "The Cyber Stop" text
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensApril 30, 2026

AI Security Risks for Trucking Fleets: What to Know About Deepfakes and Agentic AI

As fleets adopt artificial intelligence for routing, maintenance, and load matching, new security risks are emerging. Learn where the vulnerabilities are and how to put the right controls in place.

Read More →
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo

FMCSA’s Motus System Is Coming. What Fleets Need to Know Now

The long-awaited registration system promises a single portal — and tighter fraud controls.

Read More →
CargoNet 2026 Qi report.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 24, 2026

Cargo Theft Incidents Fall in Q1, but Organized Crime and Impersonation Drive New Risks

CargoNet reports fewer supply chain crime events to start 2026. But losses hold steady as organized crime shifts tactics toward impersonation schemes and high-value goods.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Graphic with light bulbs, HDT Truck Fleet Innovators logo, and the word Nominations
Fleet ManagementApril 24, 2026

Nominations Open for HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026

Heavy Duty Trucking is searching for forward-looking leaders at trucking fleets as nominations for HDT’s Truck Fleet Innovators 2026. Deadline is May 15.

Read More →
Illustration with trojan horse and lock with inside of cargo container in background
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 23, 2026

New Trojan Driver Cargo Theft Scam Bypasses Carrier Vetting Systems

Cargo theft rings plant operatives as drivers inside legitimate, fully vetted carriers, then execute coordinated thefts that look like a traditional straight theft from the outside.

Read More →
ATA Truck Tonnage Index March 2026.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 22, 2026

March Truck Tonnage Posts Strongest Annual Gain Since 2022

A modest sequential increase capped the strongest quarterly performance in years, signaling continued freight momentum in early 2026.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Toll road.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 22, 2026

Ohio Turnpike Targets $5.2 Million in Unpaid Tolls from Trucking Firms

More than 300 carriers across 26 states have been sent to collections as the Ohio Turnpike cracks down on toll evasion and delinquent payments.

Read More →
Illustration with ATRI logo and square blocks spelling out "research"
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeApril 20, 2026

'Beyond Compliance,' Regulations, Driver Coaching on ATRI’s 2026 Research List

The American Transportation Research Institute will examine driver coaching, regulatory impacts — including the "Beyond Compliance" concept —and weather disruptions that shape trucking operations.

Read More →
Brian Antonellis, senior vice president, fleet operations, Fleet Advantage.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 17, 2026

Fleet Advantage's Brian Antonellis on the Growing Need to Replace Old Trucks

Fleet Advantage's Brian Antonellis says it's time for fleets to get back to the fundamentals of good maintenance practices. And that includes replacing older, inefficient equipment.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration of computer and mobile screens with load matching software superimposed over photo of an oversize load
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 17, 2026

Truckstop.com Adding to Open Deck, Heavy Haul Offerings

Load matching for flatbed, lowbed, oversize and overweight loads can't be automated like basic van freight, but Truckstop.com is adding more high-tech tools to help.

Read More →