Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Putting the Recession in Perspective

"There is nothing typical about a typical recession. They're all unique," said Bill Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, during Heavy Duty Dialogue '09 last week

by Staff
February 23, 2009
Putting the Recession in Perspective

Bill Straus, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, spoke at Heavy Duty Dialogue '09.

3 min to read


"There is nothing typical about a typical recession. They're all unique," said Bill Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, during Heavy Duty Dialogue '09 last week.



The annual event, sponsored by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association the day before Heavy Duty Aftermarket Week, is a business conference for the commercial vehicle supplier industry, offering information on industry and market trends, forecasts, and strategy.

Strauss pointed out that people often think the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. "That's absolutely not true," he said. For instance, during the recession in 2001, we had three negative quarters, but none of them were consecutive. And in our current recession, during the first two quarters of the recession, GDP actually went up, significantly in the second quarter.

Strauss said a "blue chip panel" of 50 top forecasting economists surveyed recently expect first quarter 2009 GDP growth to end up even worse than fourth quarter 2008, with the second quarter looking a bit better, though still negative, with an upward trend during the second half of the year, but still resulting in an overall negative number for the entire year.

"So it's going to be a tough year for 2009," he said. "We're looking at a minus 1.9 percent growth rate, following -0.2 for 2008." This is the weakest growth we've seen "in many, many decades," he said.

2010 growth, however, is expected to grow at around 2.9 percent, slightly above trend.
"So the view of these economists is that we are in a business cycle. It's going to be deep and it's going to be long."

To put this recession into perspective, Strauss said, since the 1960s, the average duration of a recession has been about 11 months, with a range of six to 16 months. If this recession turns around midyear, as is being predicted, we're looking at around 18 months.

There are some bright spots, Strauss said:
* The housing crisis, which led into this recession, is much closer to the bottom than to the top, after three years of deep losses. Some analysts, he says, are expecting to see a turnaround this year.
* Lower energy prices are putting more money into consumers' pockets for discretionary spending
* Productivity still looks solid.
* The Fed has implemented very aggressive monetary policies to help turn things around.
* The fiscal stimulus package passed last year and the economic stimulus legislation recently signed into law will do their part to turn the economy around.

"Since World War II, we have grown far often more than we have gone down," Strauss said. In fact, he said, since World War II, 86 percent of the months have been growth months."People like to do business, we like to do better, and that's the driving force that has economies moving higher rather than lower."

More Fleet Management

Jamie Hagen owner, Hell Bent Xpress.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMay 29, 2026

Jamie Hagen Gets Real About Running a Small Fleet in an Uncertain Economy

Small fleet owner Jamie Hagen says new legal risks, volatile fuel prices, and a changing freight market are forcing small carriers to rethink how they operate -- and what they can afford.

Read More →
Jamie Hagen owner, Hell Bent Xpress.
Fleet ManagementMay 28, 2026

Jamie Hagen Gets Real About Freight, Fuel Prices, Safety, and Small-Fleet Survival

Running a small trucking fleet right now isn’t easy, especially right now. And Jamie Hagen doesn’t sugarcoat it.

Read More →
Jamie Hagen, Hellbent Xpress.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMay 28, 2026

Jamie Hagen Gets Real About Freight, Fuel Prices, Safety, and Small-Fleet Survival

Running a small trucking fleet right now isn’t easy, especially right now. And Jamie Hagen doesn’t sugarcoat it.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration of a padlock attached to heavy chains over a digital binary background with the words “Data Lock In?” in large bold text.
Fleet ManagementMay 28, 2026

Data Lock‑In or Integration Lock‑Out?

Data fragmentation is costing dealerships, OEMs, fleets, and upfitters millions. Here’s why interoperability may be the fix the trucking industry needs.

Read More →
Greg Feary, president and managing partner of transportation law firm Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary.
Fleet ManagementMay 27, 2026

What Trucking Fleets and Brokers Need to Know About This Supreme Court Case

In May, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that freight brokers can be held liable for damages if a truck they have contracted with is involved in an accident. Listen as this transportation attorney breaks down the ruling and its implications for the trucking industry.

Read More →
Illustration of hacker and information network
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensMay 22, 2026

The Trucking Industry’s Threat Intelligence Gap

The trucking industry has no shortage of cybersecurity reports and cargo crime statistics. What it lacks is timely, operational intelligence that fleets can actually use.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration of rising costs with truck in background

Truck Crash Rates Are Down. So Why Do Insurance Costs Keep Rising?

ATRI’s latest research points to litigation, social inflation, and soaring claims costs as key drivers behind record-high liability premiums for trucking fleets. But there are things motor carriers can do.

Read More →
ATA Truck Tonnage April 2026

ATA Truck Tonnage Holds Steady in April at Highest Levels Since 2022

ATA’s For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index was unchanged in April after a strong March gain, with freight volumes remaining at their highest levels since late 2022.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Greg Feary, president and managing partner of transportation law firm Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMay 20, 2026

Behind the SCOTUS Broker Ruling Part 1

Transportation attorney Greg Feary breaks down the recent Supreme Court decision that brokers can be held liable for damages in truck accidents and what it means for the trucking industry going forward.

Read More →