Capacity Overhang Begins to Clear, But Fleets Aren’t Ready to Spend
Daimler Truck’s David Carson sees early signs of tightening capacity — yet buyers remain wary, extending trade cycles and resisting a pre-2027 emissions surge.
DTNA Vice President David Carson thinks some form of a truck prebuy is increasingly likely as 2027 draws near.
Credit:
Jack Roberts
4 min to read
The U.S. trucking market remains in the longest freight recession the industry has ever experienced. As a result, fleets are continuing to delay replacement cycles and carefully scrutinize capital spending amid uneven freight demand signals.
That was the assessment from David Carson, senior vice president of sales and marketing for Daimler Truck North America, speaking February 19 during the launch of Detroit’s new Gen 6 heavy-duty diesel engines. The launch was held at the Detroit powertrain manufacturing campus in Redford, Michigan.
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In his comments, Carson said the freight downturn has been persistent, driven both by the broader economic cycle and by excess capacity that has taken time to unwind.
Capacity Slowly Coming Out of the Market
Speaking to journalists at the event, Carson said Daimler is beginning to see early indicators that the capacity overhang is easing.
“There’s too much capacity in the on-highway marketplace that is starting to come out,” he said, pointing to declines in overall driver capacity and an increase in the number of loads fleets are choosing to turn down.
Those signals, he suggested, reflect tightening freight availability against available equipment and labor.
Vocational truck demand is holding, Caron added, although overall growth in that segment has slowed.
While the vocational segment has helped offset softer linehaul conditions in recent years when it comes to truck sales, Carson described that market as stabilizing rather than expanding at the pace seen earlier in the cycle.
“In past cases where we saw reduced Class 8 on-highway demand, we had pretty significant vocational demand,” he said. “But that trend has now tapered off.”
Carson tied slowing vocational momentum to broader construction activity and the pace of infrastructure work already underway. Housing demand also remains strained, he said, with interest rates and affordability continuing to weigh on new home starts.
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Extended Trade Cycles and Capex Scrutiny
On the on-highway side of the market, Carson said fleets remain highly disciplined in equipment purchasing decisions. Many DTNA customers are focusing on better utilization of existing assets and limiting major replacement commitments.
“They have been very discerning about what they buy, when they buy it,” he said.
As a result, fleets are holding on to equipment longer than normal, stretching trade cycles beyond what was typical in 2022 and 2023.
That caution, Carson said, reflects both the freight recession and uncertainty about when a broader recovery will take hold.
Carson said Daimler saw “pretty healthy” demand tied to cross-border freight activity late last year and into early 2026, calling it an encouraging sign.
“We’re not at the point where we would say that is a complete recovery, or that that is necessarily sustainable moving forward.”
Fleets, he added, continue to evaluate not only whether to buy, but also the scale and timing of purchases.
Avoiding a Prebuy ‘Surge’
Looking ahead, Carson said the industry risks repeating a familiar pattern ahead of new emissions regulations.
In years past, most notably in 2007 and 2010, many fleets delayed new truck purchases until a clearer view of the market emerged. Then they all tried to purchase new trucks at once.
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“What we suffer from in this industry is everybody doing the exact same thing at the exact same time,” he said.
If truck buyers again wait and then suddenly rush back into the market, Carson warned, it could create the kind of capacity constraints seen in 2022, when demand outpaced industry production capability.
Despite the approaching EPA 2027 emissions standards, Carson said Daimler is not yet seeing a classic regulatory-driven pre-buy.
“At the moment, nobody’s buying just because they think there’ll be economic constraints continuing into 2027,” he said. “And these are fleets that are still feeling constrained by current business conditions.”
Carson said Daimler is encouraging customers to avoid waiting until the last moment, emphasizing the importance of spreading demand over time as the market improves.
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The message to customers is to plan purchases strategically when possible.
“Your financials might not say, ‘Get ahead of equipment buying,” Carson said, “But it’s a good move, if you can do it.”
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