Measurement of Truckload Rates Continues Upward Trajectory

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index for July indicates an increasing rate of acceleration for truckload linehaul pricing, posting the first double digit increase year over year since Cass began tracking it in 2005.

Compared to July 2017, the Linehaul Index increased 10.2% to 138.1. The TL Linehaul Index has been positive for 16 months in a row and all indications show that it is accelerating upward and may exceed levels not seen since the 1980s.

"Last month we increased our realized contract pricing forecast for 2018 from a range of 6% to 8% to a range of 6% to 12%, and current data is clearly signaling that the risk to our estimate may still be to the upside," stated Donald Broughton, analyst and commentator for the Cass indexes. "We believe that this is the strongest normalized percentage level of truckload pricing achieved since deregulation (normalized meaning except for extreme periods of recovery from recession)."

Cass also released its Intermodal Price index for July showing 12% increase from a year ago to 139.2. Though prices are not at their highest level for the year, it is the 22nd straight month of year-over-year increases and has been affected by increase in diesel fuel prices and tight truckload capacity.

"Tight truckload capacity and higher diesel prices are creating incremental demand and pricing power for domestic intermodal," said Donald Broughton, analyst and commentator for the Cass indexes. "Longer term, we continue to foresee oil trading in the $45 to $65 range and diesel in the $2.50 to $3.25 range throughout 2018, and even higher in certain regions within the U.S."