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December wasn’t a great month for Class 8 truck orders but it did little to dampen what was a tremendous year for the heavy-duty truck market in 2018.
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After a banner year in which Class 8 truck orders averaged at least 42,600 units per month, early reports from both ACT Research and FTR show a drop off in activity in November.
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Trailer orders keep pouring in, with preliminary data from Act Research indicating 55,530 were ordered in October and research firm FTR calling trailer orders “tremendous for the second month in a row,” giving a total for October of 53,000 units.
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FTR has reported that its Trucking Conditions Index for September fell to the lowest level in a year, indicating there has been "some stabilization in freight rates and demand.”
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Despite an overall positive truck sales forecast for 2019, tariffs and trade wars could be stumbling blocks that trip up the economy and send freight and truck sales downward, said two longtime industry analysts.
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FTR has raised its 2019 forecast for North American Class 8 truck factory shipments to 350,000 units. It has also increased its forecast for U.S. commercial trailer production to 310,000 units
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October Class 8 orders were above 40,000 units for the eighth month in a row, but two different companies reporting the data put rather different spins on their analysis of the numbers.
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A strong September meant that North American Class 8 net orders set another record in the third quarter of 2018, breaking the record set in the first quarter of the year. FTR says it often faces skepticism about how fleets can possibly fill these trucks.
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September trailers orders shattered the previous record, reaching more than 56,000 units, according to preliminary numbers reported by FTR and ACT. That tops the previous high from October 2014 by over 10,000 trailers.
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ACT Research expects Class 8 truck orders to slip to a still robust 42,800 units, and when paired with record order highs in July and August, FTR expects the third quarter of 2018 to set an all-time record.
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