Tonnage Falls in April; Analysts Still Upbeat on Freight Growth

by Staff

May 26, 2011

2 min to read

The American Trucking Associations' tonnage index fell 0.7 percent in April after gaining a revised 1.9 percent in March 2011, as durable goods orders slowed, but freight levels are predicted to continue moderate growth.

ATA's advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index ended up being slightly better for March than the 1.7 percent ATA reported on April 26. The April drop put the SA index at 114.9 (2000=100) in April, down from the March level of 115.6.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 113.6 in April, which was 8 percent below the previous month.

Compared with April 2010, seasonally tonnage climbed 4.8 percent. In March, the tonnage index was 6.5 percent above a year earlier.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April fell 3.6 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This decrease, down two of the last three months, followed a 4.4 percent March increase. Shipments of manufactured durable goods were also down in April, down following four consecutive monthly increases, falling 1 percent. This followed a 3.1 percent March increase.

Freight to Continue Growth

"The drop in April is not a concern. Since freight volumes are so volatile truck tonnage is unlikely to grow every month, even on a seasonally adjusted basis," ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. "I expect economic activity, and with it truck freight levels to grow at a moderate pace in the coming months and quarters."

"The industry, and the economy at large, should benefit from the recent declines in oil and diesel prices," Costello added. "Lower fuel costs will help freight volumes and motor carrier bottom lines going forward."

Peter Nesvold at the Jefferies & Co. analyst's firm also said the decline does not affect the forecast for truck tonnage, noting, continuing to forecast tonnage growth of 3 percent to 5 percent in 2011.

ATA calculates the tonnage index based on surveys from its membership and has been doing so since the 1970s.