Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Energy Department Raises Diesel, Gasoline Price Forecasts

Expected prices for trucking’s primary fuel as well as for gasoline have been revised higher, due largely to anticipated higher prices for crude oil, according to a new Energy Department report.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
May 9, 2018
Energy Department Raises Diesel, Gasoline Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Department has revised higher its expectations for diesel prices this year and into 2019. Graphic: U.S. DOE

2 min to read


Expected prices for diesel — trucking’s primary fuel — and gasoline have been revised higher, due largely to anticipated higher prices for crude oil, according to a new Energy Department report.

Its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects that the national average retail cost of on-highway diesel, including tax, will average $3.13 for the second quarter, up 6.7% from the forecast made a month earlier.

Ad Loading...

The average retail cost of on-highway diesel is expected to increase even more than the month-ago projections for the third and fourth quarters, 9.5% and 9% higher, respectively, with an average price of $3.17 per gallon in the third quarter and $3.16 per gallon for the fourth quarter.

The average diesel price for all of 2018 is forecast to be $3.12 per gallon, 6.4% higher than the projection from a month earlier. This also compares to an average 2017 actual cost of $2.65 per gallon and $2.31 per gallon for all of 2016.

The average 2019 cost is expected to moderate slightly, coming in at $3.01 per gallon, but that’s 3.8% higher than the department forecast in April.

Ad Loading...

Similar revisions were made by the Energy Department when it comes to the average national retail cost of regular grade gasoline, including taxes. It’s projected to average $2.90 in the current quarter, $2.91 in the third quarter, and $2.75 in the final quarter of this year.

For all of 2018, this grade of gasoline is forecast to cost $2.79 per gallon, 5.4% more than the department was calling for a month earlier, and $2.71 per gallon for all of 2019. This compares to an average cost of $2.42 and $2.15 per gallon for 2017 and 2016, respectively.

Driving these fuel prices higher is the expectation of higher crude oil prices. Brent spot prices are expected to average $71 per barrel in 2018 and $66 per barrel in 2019, which are $7 and $3 higher, respectively, than in the April outlook. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average $5 per barrel lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019.

Average prices for both Brent and WTI crude oil are expected to average 10.5% and 11.6% higher in 2018, respectively, than the forecast a month earlier. If this happens, it would result in prices this year being about $15 per barrel more than they were in 2017 and around $20 per barrel or more than they were in 2016.

At the same time, the department believes the U.S. will increase domestic crude oil production, eventually putting downward pressure on crude prices in late 2018, pushing them down even more in 2019.

More Fuel Smarts

Red Kenworth truck pulling Paper Transport trailer
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeJune 2, 2026

Lessons Learned About Alternative Fuels: Start Small, Stay Flexible

Practical advice on adopting alternative fuels and ZEVs from HDT's 2026 Top Green Fleets, from renewable diesel and natural gas to electric trucks.

Read More →
Composite image of different angles of the Kempower charger
Fuel Smartsby News/Media ReleaseMay 29, 2026

Kempower Adds Flex EV Charger to Help Support Transition to Megawatt Charging

The Kempower Mega Satellite Flex has both a CCS and MCS connector, allowing operators to serve both types of heavy-duty vehicles.

Read More →
White Hino Le electric tractor on show floor
Equipmentby News/Media ReleaseMay 26, 2026

Hino Adds Electric Class 6/7 Truck

Hino says the Le Series is an important step in the company's efforts to reduce environmental impact and support its customers’ sustainability goals.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Sigma Powertrain BEV transmission.
Fuel Smartsby Jack RobertsMay 26, 2026

Can Multi-Speed EV Transmissions Solve Heavy Trucking’s Biggest Electric-Vehicle Problems?

A startup called Sigma Powertrain believes purpose-built multi-speed gearboxes can boost efficiency, reduce battery size and improve gradeability for heavy-duty battery-electric trucks.

Read More →
Red Hendrickson e-axle at ACT Expo booth
Equipmentby News/Media ReleaseMay 22, 2026

Hendrickson Debuts Electraax E-Axle for Medium-Duty Trucks

Developed with Driventic, Hendrickson's new integrated e-axle is designed to improve efficiency, reduce weight, and extend range in Class 6-7 EV applications.

Read More →
Fueling trucks.
Fuel SmartsCover Storyby Deborah LockridgeMay 18, 2026

50 Ways Fleets Can Cut Fuel Costs Now — Without Buying New Trucks

Fuel savings don’t come from one big change. They come from dozens of small ones. Here’s how leading fleets are stacking gains across drivers, routing, maintenance, and more.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Collage of HDT Top Green Fleets with logo
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeMay 18, 2026

Top Green Fleets 2026: How Fleets Are Reducing Emissions in the Real World

What works in sustainable trucking today? Heavy Duty Trucking's Top Green Fleets are finding practical ways to cut fuel use, reduce emissions, and keep freight moving.

Read More →
Tesla Semi electric truck on display at ACT Expo
Fuel Smartsby News/Media ReleaseMay 13, 2026

California Launching $1 Billion Electric Truck Rebate Program

CARB says the California Clean Fuel Reward program will begin offering point-of-sale rebates of up to $120,000 for electric commercial trucks starting June 26.

Read More →
Closeup of engine in Mack truck
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeMay 13, 2026

Mack Unveils EPA 2027-Compliant MP13 Engine With More Power, Better Fuel Economy

Along with unveiling its EPA 2027-compliant MP13 engine, Mack outlined powertrain changes across its Class 6-8 lineup, including new Cummins-based X10 engines.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Crowd at Volvo booth at ACT Expo
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeMay 8, 2026

How Volvo’s New D13 Engine Meets EPA 2027 Emissions Without Sacrificing Power or Fuel Efficiency

Volvo says advances in combustion and aftertreatment helped its new EPA 2027 D13 engine avoid the fuel-economy penalties many once expected from tighter NOx emissions limits.

Read More →