An economist speaking to trucking executives last week said three different panels of economists believe the recession will end this quarter.

A monthly survey of 51 economists published earlier this month by Blue Chip Economic Indicators say the Gross Domestic Product, the measure of the nation's economic activity, will turn positive in the third quarter.

Although 2009 overall will still show negative growth, 2010 will see a positive GDP growth, they predict. Two other panels have predicted the same thing, said "economic futurist" Jeff Thredgold of Thredgold Economic Associates, speaking at last week's meeting of the Truckload Carriers Association's Independent Contractor Division in Dallas.

"You have been feeling enormous pain in your business," he said, "and it is almost universal in all kinds of business. But the message is we will get through this - we are getting through this; business will get better."

Although this is the 21st month of this recession (the last two lasted eight months), the longest and deepest of our lifetimes, economists are seeing better news in housing, manufacturing, the stock market and other indicators. "I would suggest to you the tonnage will improve, the number of trips will improve, even your revenue will improve late this yea and into 2010," he said.

Indeed, many of the fleets at the meeting said they have seen business picking up, and are bringing owner-operators back on. The Cash for Clunkers program has been a boon to Ohio-based Jet Express, which had seen its business, mostly auto parts, cut in half over the past year. Now that dealers have all but emptied their lots, selling new fuel-efficient vehicles to those who trade in fuel-guzzlers to get the federal government's incentive, the auto makers are busy building replacements. Jet Express has put dozens of owner-operators back on the road in the past few weeks.

Thredgold cautioned, however, that the recovery will be slow. "We are not going back to a boom," he said. "We are moving back toward positive growth, but we still have issues with housing, with commercial real estate, with unemployment."

The global economy has been in recession for the first time since World War II, and for the first time in history, the U.S., Japan and Europe have been going through a recession at the same time. But the Chinese, Japanese, and Indian economies are picking back up, Thredgold said, and France and Germany both moved into slightly positive growth numbers in the second quarter. "We suggest the global economy will be on the rebound by the second half of the year."

As the economy recovers, Thredgold noted, it will continue to be one "that demands and rewards education more than ever before. In 1980, the average college graduate made 25 percent more than the average high school graduate. That number today is 90 percent more."

However, he said, education beyond high school does not have to be college for everyone. "There is of course a third viable alternative: applied technology education - what we used to call vocational training."

He also suggested seven critical industries of the future: technology, telecommunications, financial services, energy, entertainment, biomedicine . . . and transportation.