Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Service Sector Loses Steam, Consumer Confidence Up

The latest reading on the health of the nation’s non-manufacturing/service sector of the economy shows it starting the year with slower growth. A separate report shows consumers aren’t paying much heed to recent volatility in financial markets as Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
January 26, 2016
Economic Watch: Service Sector Loses Steam, Consumer Confidence Up

 

4 min to read


The latest reading on the health of the nation’s non-manufacturing/service sector of the economy shows it starting the year with slower growth. A separate report shows consumers aren’t paying much heed to recent volatility in financial markets as Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting.

The just released Flash U.S. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index from the financial information services provider Markit fell to 53.7 in January from 54.3 in December. Although business activity continues expanding, the headline reading has now signaled weaker overall growth in four of the past five months.

Ad Loading...

A reading above 50 indicates the service sector is expending; one below 50 shows contraction.

A number of survey respondents suggested that spending cutbacks across the energy sector had a negative impact on their business activity.

According to the report, service sector firms continued to cite improving domestic economic conditions and rising client demand. However, a number of survey respondents suggested that spending cutbacks across the energy sector had a negative impact on their business activity. There were also some reports that the strong U.S. dollar remained a headwind to growth at the start of 2016.

Growth of new business accelerated from December’s 11-month low, but was still weaker than seen on average in 2015. The survey also indicated that around seven times as many U.S. service providers, 36%, anticipate a rise in business activity over the next 12 months as those that forecast a decline, 5%. Survey respondents mainly attributed their optimism to supportive economic conditions and expected new business gains.

Ad Loading...

“A struggling manufacturing economy is being accompanied by a services sector where growth showed further signs of losing momentum in January even before the bad weather hit,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. “The data are by no means disastrous, signaling a 1.5% annualized rate of economic growth at the start of the year, but the drop in business confidence to one of its lowest levels for over five years suggests that firms are bracing themselves for worse to come.”

He said worries about financial market volatility, the impact of slower growth overseas, a downturn in the energy sector and uncertainty about higher interest rates all took their toll and set the scene for further weakness in coming months.

Consumer Confidence at Three-Month High

Meantime, a report from the private research group The Conference Board shows consumers’ overall feeling are better than they were a month ago.

Its Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in December to a revised 96.3, improved moderately in January to 98.1. This compares to a post-recession high of 102.6 hit last September. The latest number is the best in three months.

The Present Situation Index was unchanged at 116.4, while the Expectations Index increased from 83 to 85.9 in January.

Ad Loading...

“Consumer confidence improved slightly in January, following an increase in December,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady, while their expectations for the next six months improved moderately. For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy.”

The percentage of consumers saying business conditions are “good” was virtually unchanged at 27.2%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” declined slightly from 18.9% to 18.5%. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was modestly more positive.

Their optimism about the short-term outlook improved somewhat in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose from 14.5% to 16.2%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen edged down from 10.8% to 10.3%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also slightly more optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 12.4% to 13.2%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased slightly from 16.8% to 16.5%.

The conventional wisdom is that policymakers will hold off any hike in interest rates following one last month, the first hike in seven years.

Both reports come as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee began two days of meetings on Tuesday in which it expected to release a statement on Wednesday.

Ad Loading...

The conventional wisdom is that policymakers will hold off any hike in interest rates following one last month, the first hike in seven years, and the ugly start financial markets experienced early this year.

Since the last Fed meeting, most readings of the economy has been anything but stellar with housing being one of the few bright spots. And while manufacturing has rebounded this month, according to a preliminary report, its still at its second lowest level in a little more than two years.

More Fleet Management

Illustration of a chalkboard with a hand drawing an arrow curving away from a partially erased straight arrow with the words "Embracing Change," the Heavy Duty Trucking Logo and the "cover feature" graphic.
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 1, 2026

How Innovative Trucking Leaders Turn Change Into an Advantage

As the pace of change accelerates in trucking, the fleets that adapt best have more than the latest technology. They have cultures that embrace improvement.

Read More →
Illustration of past due invoices with red X on top with background of a truck at a loading dock
Fleet ManagementJuly 27, 2026

Freight Broker Bonds Just Got Harder to Get. Here's What That Means for Your Fleet.

When it gets harder for a freight broker to prove they are financially sound, the ones who cannot clear that bar get pushed out of the market. And those are exactly the brokers who used to leave motor carriers holding the bag.

Read More →
Photo of cable bridge crossing Detroit River
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 23, 2026

Long-Awaited Canadian Border Bridge to Open in Detroit

For trucking, the bridge opening should offer immediate improvements in efficiency and reliability, with new customs facilities, expanded inspection capacity, and direct freeway-to-freeway connections.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Blue International heavy-duty truck with Aurora driverless truck software coming head-on on an interstate highway
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJuly 22, 2026

Aurora Rolls Out Next Generation of Driverless Trucks for Commercial Freight

Aurora's latest autonomous trucks it's rolling out with International feature lower-cost hardware designed for a million miles as the company expands commercial driverless freight operations across the U.S. Sun Belt.

Read More →
American Trucking Associations for-hire tonnage graph
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 21, 2026

Freight Tonnage Down, Rates up, as Lower Capacity Powers Trucking Recovery

The recovery from the freight recession continues to be driven by reduction in capacity rather than by increased demand.

Read More →
Cyberstop column header depicting images of ChatGPT prompt on a smartphone and shadowy hooded figure
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensJuly 17, 2026

Think Your Trucking Fleet Isn't Using Much AI? Think Again

Shadow AI — the use of unauthorized artificial intelligence tools at work — is becoming increasingly common, putting sensitive company data at risk. Learn how trucking fleets can protect sensitive data while embracing AI.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Photo of semi trucks with Panther, ArcBest, and ABF trailers backed up to docks, with ArcBest logo superimposed on top
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 17, 2026

ArcBest Consolidates Brands, Cuts Workforce

The company will bring three business units under the ArcBest brand, eliminate about 2% of positions, and expects the changes to generate $40 million in annual savings.

Read More →
Cover of ATRI operational costs study with graph clip art and photo of trucks on highway in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 15, 2026

Trucking Fleets Faced Record Operating Costs During Third Year of Freight Recession

ATRI's annual operational cost report shows carriers trimmed fleets, delayed equipment purchases, and ran older trucks as expenses continued to outpace freight rates.

Read More →
Micheline AI Assistant.

Michelin Adds AI Assistant to MyConnectedFleet Platform

Michelin’s new generative AI tool delivers instant fleet insights, helping managers analyze fuel use, tire maintenance, vehicle status, and operational performance without manually creating reports.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
LytxOne Platform.

LytxOne Platform Now Features AI, Compliance, and Asset Tracking Tools

New enhancements add AI-powered insights, asset tracking, compliance automation, and configurable privacy controls to Lytx's all-in-one fleet management platform.

Read More →