Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Service Sector Loses Steam, Consumer Confidence Up

The latest reading on the health of the nation’s non-manufacturing/service sector of the economy shows it starting the year with slower growth. A separate report shows consumers aren’t paying much heed to recent volatility in financial markets as Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
January 26, 2016
Economic Watch: Service Sector Loses Steam, Consumer Confidence Up

 

4 min to read


The latest reading on the health of the nation’s non-manufacturing/service sector of the economy shows it starting the year with slower growth. A separate report shows consumers aren’t paying much heed to recent volatility in financial markets as Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting.

The just released Flash U.S. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index from the financial information services provider Markit fell to 53.7 in January from 54.3 in December. Although business activity continues expanding, the headline reading has now signaled weaker overall growth in four of the past five months.

Ad Loading...

A reading above 50 indicates the service sector is expending; one below 50 shows contraction.

A number of survey respondents suggested that spending cutbacks across the energy sector had a negative impact on their business activity.

According to the report, service sector firms continued to cite improving domestic economic conditions and rising client demand. However, a number of survey respondents suggested that spending cutbacks across the energy sector had a negative impact on their business activity. There were also some reports that the strong U.S. dollar remained a headwind to growth at the start of 2016.

Growth of new business accelerated from December’s 11-month low, but was still weaker than seen on average in 2015. The survey also indicated that around seven times as many U.S. service providers, 36%, anticipate a rise in business activity over the next 12 months as those that forecast a decline, 5%. Survey respondents mainly attributed their optimism to supportive economic conditions and expected new business gains.

Ad Loading...

“A struggling manufacturing economy is being accompanied by a services sector where growth showed further signs of losing momentum in January even before the bad weather hit,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit. “The data are by no means disastrous, signaling a 1.5% annualized rate of economic growth at the start of the year, but the drop in business confidence to one of its lowest levels for over five years suggests that firms are bracing themselves for worse to come.”

He said worries about financial market volatility, the impact of slower growth overseas, a downturn in the energy sector and uncertainty about higher interest rates all took their toll and set the scene for further weakness in coming months.

Consumer Confidence at Three-Month High

Meantime, a report from the private research group The Conference Board shows consumers’ overall feeling are better than they were a month ago.

Its Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in December to a revised 96.3, improved moderately in January to 98.1. This compares to a post-recession high of 102.6 hit last September. The latest number is the best in three months.

The Present Situation Index was unchanged at 116.4, while the Expectations Index increased from 83 to 85.9 in January.

Ad Loading...

“Consumer confidence improved slightly in January, following an increase in December,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady, while their expectations for the next six months improved moderately. For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy.”

The percentage of consumers saying business conditions are “good” was virtually unchanged at 27.2%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” declined slightly from 18.9% to 18.5%. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was modestly more positive.

Their optimism about the short-term outlook improved somewhat in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose from 14.5% to 16.2%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen edged down from 10.8% to 10.3%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also slightly more optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 12.4% to 13.2%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased slightly from 16.8% to 16.5%.

The conventional wisdom is that policymakers will hold off any hike in interest rates following one last month, the first hike in seven years.

Both reports come as the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee began two days of meetings on Tuesday in which it expected to release a statement on Wednesday.

Ad Loading...

The conventional wisdom is that policymakers will hold off any hike in interest rates following one last month, the first hike in seven years, and the ugly start financial markets experienced early this year.

Since the last Fed meeting, most readings of the economy has been anything but stellar with housing being one of the few bright spots. And while manufacturing has rebounded this month, according to a preliminary report, its still at its second lowest level in a little more than two years.

More Fleet Management

Lance Evans, Director of Safety at K&B Transportation.

Inside Modern Fleet Safety: AI, Cameras & Speed Control at K&B Transportation

How a former commercial vehicle enforcement officer turned director of safety at K&B Transportation is embracing real-world safety technology.

Read More →
TEN disaster prep.
Fleet ManagementMay 1, 2026

How Fleets Can Avoid Equipment Blind Spots in Disaster Response

When the unexpected happens, how you react to, and deal with operational blind spots is critical. Here’s how to keep you recovery on track, when nothing is normal.

Read More →
Illustration of cybersecurity images with "The Cyber Stop" text
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensApril 30, 2026

AI Security Risks for Trucking Fleets: What to Know About Deepfakes and Agentic AI

As fleets adopt artificial intelligence for routing, maintenance, and load matching, new security risks are emerging. Learn where the vulnerabilities are and how to put the right controls in place.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Mobile tablet showing Motus screen against highway background with Motus logo

FMCSA’s Motus System Is Coming. What Fleets Need to Know Now

The long-awaited registration system promises a single portal — and tighter fraud controls.

Read More →
CargoNet 2026 Qi report.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 24, 2026

Cargo Theft Incidents Fall in Q1, but Organized Crime and Impersonation Drive New Risks

CargoNet reports fewer supply chain crime events to start 2026. But losses hold steady as organized crime shifts tactics toward impersonation schemes and high-value goods.

Read More →
Graphic with light bulbs, HDT Truck Fleet Innovators logo, and the word Nominations
Fleet ManagementApril 24, 2026

Nominations Open for HDT Truck Fleet Innovators 2026

Heavy Duty Trucking is searching for forward-looking leaders at trucking fleets as nominations for HDT’s Truck Fleet Innovators 2026. Deadline is May 15.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration with trojan horse and lock with inside of cargo container in background
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 23, 2026

New Trojan Driver Cargo Theft Scam Bypasses Carrier Vetting Systems

Cargo theft rings plant operatives as drivers inside legitimate, fully vetted carriers, then execute coordinated thefts that look like a traditional straight theft from the outside.

Read More →
ATA Truck Tonnage Index March 2026.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseApril 22, 2026

March Truck Tonnage Posts Strongest Annual Gain Since 2022

A modest sequential increase capped the strongest quarterly performance in years, signaling continued freight momentum in early 2026.

Read More →
Toll road.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsApril 22, 2026

Ohio Turnpike Targets $5.2 Million in Unpaid Tolls from Trucking Firms

More than 300 carriers across 26 states have been sent to collections as the Ohio Turnpike cracks down on toll evasion and delinquent payments.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Illustration with ATRI logo and square blocks spelling out "research"
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeApril 20, 2026

'Beyond Compliance,' Regulations, Driver Coaching on ATRI’s 2026 Research List

The American Transportation Research Institute will examine driver coaching, regulatory impacts — including the "Beyond Compliance" concept —and weather disruptions that shape trucking operations.

Read More →