Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Latest Readings Show Mixed Results, Lower Expectations

Orders for long-lasting durable goods increased more than expected last month while a snapshot of manufacturing activity showed it slowed this month and there were mixed results for housing during February, according to four new economic reports.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
March 24, 2017
Economic Watch: Latest Readings Show Mixed Results, Lower Expectations

 

5 min to read


Orders for long-lasting durable goods increased more than expected last month while a snapshot of manufacturing activity showed it slowed this month and there were mixed results for housing during February, according to four new economic reports.

The Commerce Department reported on Friday that new orders for items designed to last at least three years increased 1.7% in February from the month before. That beat Wall Street expectations and follows an upwardly revised 2.3% rise in January.

Ad Loading...

The latest gain was led by transportation orders, which increased 4.3%. Excluding transportation, new orders were up 0.4%, the sixth straight monthly hike.

Shipments of durable goods improved 0.3% in February, the third increase out of the past four months

In contrast, new orders for nondefense capital goods minus aircraft, an indicator of business investment, moved down 0.1% in February, less than a consensus expectation of a 0.5% gain, following a 0.1% increase in January. This is the first drop in five months, but is up by an annual rate of 9.1% over the past three months.

Ad Loading...

Much of the overall gain in durable goods orders was again due to a surge in volatile aircraft orders while other details in the report were disappointing, according to Sarah House, economist at Wells Fargo Securities.

“Potential cracks in the auto sector, which has been a bright spot in recent years, are beginning to emerge. Orders for vehicles and parts fell 0.8% and are nearly flat over the past year,” she said. “The pullback in orders, and shipments over the past two months, is consistent with the softer sales environment since early this year."

She noted that after falling the past three months, inventories, at least at the manufacturing stage, remain contained and should limit the near-term hit to production for motor vehicles and parts.

Such an overall slowdown in manufacturing that House described is evident in a preliminary report about the sector for this month.

The Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for March declined to 53.4 from 54.2 in February, its lowest level in five months, according to financial information services provider IHS Markit.

Ad Loading...

The reading is still well above the 50 “neutral value” that marked seven-and-a-half years of sustained growth across the manufacturing sector.

Mirroring the overall trend for business activity, the latest data signaled that manufacturing new order volumes expanded at the slowest pace for five months. This contributed to more cautious purchasing activity in March, alongside renewed efforts to streamline inventories, according to the report. Reflecting this, pre-production stocks were accumulated at the weakest pace since last September, while finished goods inventories dropped for the first time in six months.

“The U.S. economy shifted down a gear in March,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. “A slowing in the pace of growth signaled by the PMI surveys for a second straight month suggests that the economy is struggling to sustain momentum."

A separate survey that lumps the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors into one index also showed conditions weakened in March, hitting a six-month low.

According to Williamson, the survey readings are consistent with annualized gross domestic product growth of 1.7% in the first quarter, down from 1.9% in the final quarter of last year.

Ad Loading...

New Homes Up, Existing Homes Down

These reports follow ones on housing from earlier in the week that show a jump in new home sales while sales of existing homes declined.

Sales of newly built single family homes increased 6.1% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units, according to the Commerce Department. This is a seven-month high and came despite slightly higher interest rates. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 12.8%.

“The uptick in mortgage interest rates is having a minimal effect on new home sales thus far,” said National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Ongoing job creation, rising household formations and affordable home prices should keep the market on an upward trajectory in 2017.”

New home sales account for about 10% of all home sales.

“New home sales surged well ahead of the consensus estimate, likely due to unusually mild weather in February, which pulled sales forward,” said Anika Khan, senior economist at Well Fargo Securities. “We suspect sales will slow in the coming months as the Nor’easter likely stalled activity.”

Ad Loading...

Meantime, the drop in sales of existing homes during February came on the heels of those sales hitting a 10-year high the month before, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, retreated 3.7%. Despite last month's decline, February's sales pace is still 5.4% above a year ago.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said closings fell in February as too few properties were for sale and weakening affordability conditions stifled buyers in most of the country.

"Realtors are reporting stronger foot traffic from a year ago, but low supply in the affordable price range continues to be the pest that's pushing up price growth and pressuring the budgets of prospective buyers," he said. "Newly listed properties are being snatched up quickly so far this year and leaving behind minimal choices for buyers trying to reach the market."

The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $228,400, up 7.7% from February 2016. That marks the 60th consecutive month of year-over-year gains.

Ad Loading...

Single-family home sales, the biggest share of the market, declined 3% percent but are 5.8% above the pace from a year ago.

More Fleet Management

Illustration of a chalkboard with a hand drawing an arrow curving away from a partially erased straight arrow with the words "Embracing Change," the Heavy Duty Trucking Logo and the "cover feature" graphic.
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 1, 2026

How Innovative Trucking Leaders Turn Change Into an Advantage

As the pace of change accelerates in trucking, the fleets that adapt best have more than the latest technology. They have cultures that embrace improvement.

Read More →
Illustration of past due invoices with red X on top with background of a truck at a loading dock
Fleet ManagementJuly 27, 2026

Freight Broker Bonds Just Got Harder to Get. Here's What That Means for Your Fleet.

When it gets harder for a freight broker to prove they are financially sound, the ones who cannot clear that bar get pushed out of the market. And those are exactly the brokers who used to leave motor carriers holding the bag.

Read More →
Photo of cable bridge crossing Detroit River
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 23, 2026

Long-Awaited Canadian Border Bridge to Open in Detroit

For trucking, the bridge opening should offer immediate improvements in efficiency and reliability, with new customs facilities, expanded inspection capacity, and direct freeway-to-freeway connections.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Blue International heavy-duty truck with Aurora driverless truck software coming head-on on an interstate highway
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJuly 22, 2026

Aurora Rolls Out Next Generation of Driverless Trucks for Commercial Freight

Aurora's latest autonomous trucks it's rolling out with International feature lower-cost hardware designed for a million miles as the company expands commercial driverless freight operations across the U.S. Sun Belt.

Read More →
American Trucking Associations for-hire tonnage graph
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 21, 2026

Freight Tonnage Down, Rates up, as Lower Capacity Powers Trucking Recovery

The recovery from the freight recession continues to be driven by reduction in capacity rather than by increased demand.

Read More →
Cyberstop column header depicting images of ChatGPT prompt on a smartphone and shadowy hooded figure
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensJuly 17, 2026

Think Your Trucking Fleet Isn't Using Much AI? Think Again

Shadow AI — the use of unauthorized artificial intelligence tools at work — is becoming increasingly common, putting sensitive company data at risk. Learn how trucking fleets can protect sensitive data while embracing AI.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Photo of semi trucks with Panther, ArcBest, and ABF trailers backed up to docks, with ArcBest logo superimposed on top
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 17, 2026

ArcBest Consolidates Brands, Cuts Workforce

The company will bring three business units under the ArcBest brand, eliminate about 2% of positions, and expects the changes to generate $40 million in annual savings.

Read More →
Cover of ATRI operational costs study with graph clip art and photo of trucks on highway in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 15, 2026

Trucking Fleets Faced Record Operating Costs During Third Year of Freight Recession

ATRI's annual operational cost report shows carriers trimmed fleets, delayed equipment purchases, and ran older trucks as expenses continued to outpace freight rates.

Read More →
Micheline AI Assistant.

Michelin Adds AI Assistant to MyConnectedFleet Platform

Michelin’s new generative AI tool delivers instant fleet insights, helping managers analyze fuel use, tire maintenance, vehicle status, and operational performance without manually creating reports.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
LytxOne Platform.

LytxOne Platform Now Features AI, Compliance, and Asset Tracking Tools

New enhancements add AI-powered insights, asset tracking, compliance automation, and configurable privacy controls to Lytx's all-in-one fleet management platform.

Read More →