Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: GDP Revised Upward, Consumer Sentiment Declines

The U.S. economy performed better in the second quarter of the year than earlier thought, according to a new Commerce Department report Friday, leaving some wondering if this puts the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
September 25, 2015
Economic Watch: GDP Revised Upward, Consumer Sentiment Declines

 

3 min to read


The U.S. economy performed better in the second quarter of the year than earlier thought, according to a new Commerce Department report Friday, leaving some wondering if this puts the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates.

Ad Loading...

The gross domestic product (GDP), which measures the total output of goods services, increased at an annual rate of 3.9%. That compares to a 3.7% report a month ago and the July advance estimate of 2.7%.

Ad Loading...

Helping to push the GDP higher was annual consumer spending growth being raised from 3.1% to 3.6%, with residential construction increasing at a 9.3% pace and nonresidential building increasing 6.1% annually.

Despite this overall gain, thanks to weakness in the first three months of the year, growth in the first half of 2015 remains on track at a modest 2.2% trend pace established at the end of the Great Recession.

Where do we go from here?

According to Federal Reserve Chair Jane Yellen's comments Thursday at the University of Massachusetts, the Federal Open Market Committee remains committed to the likelihood of a rate increase this year should the economy continue to improve markedly, believing inflation will begin to reverse course and meet their target of 2% in the medium-term.

However, that may be too optimistic, according to on analyst.

Ad Loading...

Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza points out the latest report from the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggests third quarter growth is likely to be a large disappointment, coming in around an annual rate of 1.5%, significantly below the Fed's expectations for "further improvement.”

“The lackluster reality of the data will likely be enough to snuff out any ‘confidence’ in further underlying momentum in growth and inflation, and keep the Fed sidelined beyond their proposed timetable of 2015,” she said. “After all, whether interpreted as a dovish or hawkish speech yesterday, the takeaway remains the same; the expectation of a rate increase still this year is based on model projections of growth and recovery in the economy, and individual committee nembers expectations.”

However, Piegza said, the actual pathway of rates will depend on the actual data and evaluation of the data, which is uncertain. 

“Plain and simple, heightened expectations have kept the market guessing for years, but it is the underperformance of the U.S. economy that has kept the Fed sidelined,” she said.

Adding to concerns about where the economy is headed in the current quarter is that a new and separate report shows consumers’ feelings going a bit south.

Ad Loading...

The University of Michigan Survey of Consumer’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 5.1% to 84.6 this month. It's up only 3.1% from the same time a year ago.

The decline in optimism continued to narrow in late September as consumers increasingly concluded that the stock market declines had more to do with international conditions than the domestic economy, according to Surveys of Consumers Chief Economist Richard Curtin.

Consumers now believe that global economic trends can directly influence their own job and wage prospects as well as indirectly via financial markets.

“While the September Sentiment Index was at the lowest level in 11 months, it was still higher than in any prior month since May 2007,” he said. “To be sure, a raft of recent events have been viewed as negative economic indicators by consumers, including falling commodity prices, weakened Chinese and other economies as well as continued stresses on European countries. Although most believe the domestic economy is still largely insulated, they have lowered the pace of job and wage growth that they now anticipate.”

Survey measures of consumer’s current economic conditions as well as their expectations also moved lower compared to August, but are still up slightly from a year earlier.

Curtin said the true significance of these findings is not the diminished economic prospects, but that consumers now believe that global economic trends can directly influence their own job and wage prospects as well as indirectly via financial markets.

Ad Loading...

“While now small, the influence of the global economy is certain to rise in the future and prompt widespread adjustments by consumers and policy makers,” he said.

More Fleet Management

ATA President Chris Spear.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMarch 17, 2026

ATA’s Spear Warns Fuel Prices, Trade Policy, and Global Conflict Could Stall Trucking Recovery

Speaking at the TMC Annual Meeting in Nashville, ATA President Chris Spear said trucking faces mounting pressure from rising fuel prices, geopolitical instability, and uncertainty around trade policy.

Read More →
Illustration of author headshot with black-and-white old-fashioned rig in the background

New Entrants, Chameleon Carriers, and Safety: Is It Too Easy to Start a Trucking Company?

More than 100,000 new trucking companies enter the industry each year, but regulators manage to audit only a fraction of them. That churn creates opportunities for inexperienced startups — and for “chameleon carriers” that shut down after safety violations and reappear under new identities. Read more from Deborah Lockridge in this commentary.

Read More →
Panel discussion
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeMarch 12, 2026

Fleet Managers Invited to Apply for Exclusive HDT Exchange Event

HDTX is an intimate event that connects heavy-duty trucking fleet managers with industry suppliers through small-group discussions, educational sessions, and structured one-on-one meetings.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
DAT iPhone Widget.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseMarch 12, 2026

DAT Launches iPhone Widget to Help Owner-Operators Find Loads Faster

New DAT One feature shows top-paying loads directly on an iPhone’s home screen, helping carriers react faster to spot-market opportunities.

Read More →
Optimal Dynamics Scale screen shot
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseMarch 12, 2026

Optimal Dynamics Launches AI System to Help Carriers Choose Better Freight

Optimal Dynamics says its new Scale platform uses AI agents and optimization to help carriers find and secure freight that improves network balance and profitability.

Read More →
DAT March 2026 trucking conditions.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMarch 12, 2026

DAT: Flatbed Demand Climbs as Van and Reefer Rates Soften

DAT Freight & Analytics data shows tightening flatbed capacity, easing produce markets, and softening van and reefer rates.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
YouTube thumbnail with Mike Roeth of NACFE saying "NACFE's Messy Middle: Which Fuel Wins?"
Fuel Smartsby Deborah LockridgeMarch 11, 2026

Run on Less “Messy Middle” Data Shows Multiple Paths Forward for Truck Powertrains [Watch]

NACFE's Run on Less - Messy Middle project demonstrates the power of data in helping to guide the future of alternative fuels and powertrains for heavy-duty trucks.

Read More →
Illustration of crowded New York street overlaid with dollar signs
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeMarch 11, 2026

Federal Court Lets NYC Congestion Pricing Continue

A federal court ruling allows New York City’s congestion pricing program to continue, leaving truck tolls in place for fleets delivering into Manhattan.

Read More →
Fontaine Modification Access365
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseMarch 10, 2026

Fontaine Modification Launches Real-Time Truck Modification Tracking Portal

Fontaine Modification has introduced a new customer portal designed to give fleets real-time visibility into the truck modification process, addressing one of the most common questions fleet managers face: “Where’s my truck?”

Read More →
Ad Loading...
FTR Tucking Conditions March 2026.
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsMarch 10, 2026

FTR: Trucking Conditions Index Climbs to Highest Level Since 2022

Strong freight rates, rising volumes and tighter capacity push trucking conditions higher, though diesel prices could temper gains in the near term, FTR cautions.

Read More →