Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Diesel, Oil Prices Expected to Jump Around 17% Next Year

Final government forecasts for diesel, gasoline and oil prices before 2017 gets underway are in with two of the three calling for double-digit percentage hikes compared to this year.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
December 6, 2016
Diesel, Oil Prices Expected to Jump Around 17% Next Year

 

3 min to read


Final government forecasts for diesel, gasoline and oil prices before 2017 gets underway are in with two of the three calling for double-digit percentage hikes compared to this year.

The U.S. Energy Department’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects trucking’s main fuel will average $2.70 per gallon next year, which would be a 16.6% increase over 2016’s projected average price of $2.31 per gallon.

Ad Loading...

If this happens, diesel will average nearly as much as it did in 2015, but will still be significantly less than the 2014 average of $3.83 per gallon.

Much of the reason for the expected price increase is that oil prices are forecast to move higher. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to jump 17.6% next year over 2016’s expected final average, from $43.07 per barrel to $50.66 per barrel. Despite the hike, this is only $2 more than the 2015 average but is much less than the average of $93.17 per barrel in 2014. Brent crude prices are expected to follow much of the same pattern.

Contributing to this, according to the report, is U.S. crude oil production that averaged 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015, and is forecast to average 8.9 million in 2016 and 8.8 million in 2017. Also global oil inventories are expected to build next year at a rate that is expected to be just more than half of this year.

Ad Loading...

The report noted that at the late November meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), members announced a framework for supply reductions among most of its members while several non-members also announced plans to freeze or reduce oil production.

“The extent to which the announced plans will be carried out and actually reduce supply below levels that would have occurred in their absence remains uncertain,” the report said. “If the agreement contributes to prices rising above $50 per barrel in the coming months, it could encourage a return to supply growth in U.S…. oil more quickly than currently expected.”

According to the department, crude oil prices near $50 per barrel have led to increased investment by some U.S. production companies and a price above could contribute to supply growth in other U.S. tight oil regions and in other non-OPEC producing countries that do not participate in the OPEC-led supply reductions. Some analysts feel this could help keep oil prices returning from high levels seen as recently as 2014, before prices suddenly collapsed to below their current levels.

Meantime, expectations are that gasoline prices will also rise in 2017, though by a smaller margin than diesel and crude oil. The department is forecasting the average retail price of regular-grade gasoline to increase 7.3% in 2017 compared to 2016’s expected average. This would put it at $2.30 per gallon, compared to an expected 2016 average of $2.14 but still below the averages of $2.43 and $3.36 per gallon in 2015 and 2014, respectively.

More Fleet Management

Red Kodiak-branded autonomous tractor with Charger-branded trailer backed up to warehouse
Fleet Management•October 30, 2026

Kodiak Lines Up Fleets for Driverless Trucking

An agreement for 75 trucks, a new Texas freight lane, and progress on safety validation move Kodiak closer to its planned driverless highway launch.

Read More →
Illustration with Star of David and EEOC logo
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 28, 2026

ITS Logistics Settles Religious Harassment Case

The Nevada-based logistics firm agreed to pay more than $396,000 to settle a religious harassment charge involving an employee's Jewish identity.

Read More →
Truck on divided interstate highway driving toward sunrise
Fleet Management•October 27, 2026

Your Trucks Are Busy. That Doesn’t Mean They’re Winning.

High utilization doesn’t always mean strong margins. Looking beyond the current load can help fleets make better dispatch decisions and get more value from each truck’s time.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
ATA economist Bob Costello speaking beside a graph showing truckload operating costs rising as freight revenue per mile declined after 2022.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 22, 2026

Why This Trucking Recovery Is Different

Freight demand remains sluggish, but rising costs and tougher enforcement have taken enough capacity out of the market to change the outlook for motor carriers.

Read More →
PS Coach tablet interface showing a driver’s coaching inbox, safety event video and coaching advice for a harsh-braking event.
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

Platform Science Adds Dispatch and Safety Tools

Four additions to PS Fleet help fleets monitor loads, manage driver coaching, share truck locations and adjust video system settings.

Read More →
Screen capture showing PrePass Intelligence data on tolls
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

PrePass Intelligence Mines Fleet Bypass, Toll and Safety Data

PrePass Intelligence helps fleets measure bypass savings, flag potential toll overcharges, and spot suspicious transactions by combining data from separate systems.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Computer screen showing examples of what fleets could ask Motive AI Agents to do
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 20, 2026

Motive Adds AI Agents for Fleet Operations

New tools automate follow-up on fleet data, from maintenance work orders to driver alerts, with two-way voice conversations planned for later this year.

Read More →
Graphic art with a heavy-duty tractor trailer and a work truck with the words "trivia lunch"
Fleet Management•by Lauren Fletcher•October 19, 2026

Can You Beat Our Trucking Trivia Challenge?

Test your truck knowledge with 19 trivia questions from Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange. Can you keep up with the fleet pros?

Read More →
Four horizontal and two vertical video screens show different aspects of BeyondTruck's new compatibility engine
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

BeyondTrucks Adds Rules Checks to Dispatch

New Compatibility Engine checks driver qualifications, equipment requirements and fleet policies before loads are dispatched.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Gloved hand fueling a truck beside a graphic listing ATRI’s top three trucking concerns for 2026: fuel prices, lawsuit abuse reform and CSA.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

Diesel Prices Hijack Trucking’s Worry List

ATRI’s annual survey finds cautious optimism about freight, but diesel costs, litigation, and insurance continue to squeeze fleets. Drivers have different priorities on several issues.

Read More →