Diesel, Oil Prices Expected to Jump Around 17% Next Year
Final government forecasts for diesel, gasoline and oil prices before 2017 gets underway are in with two of the three calling for double-digit percentage hikes compared to this year.


Final government forecasts for diesel, gasoline and oil prices before 2017 gets underway are in with two of the three calling for double-digit percentage hikes compared to this year.
The U.S. Energy Department’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects trucking’s main fuel will average $2.70 per gallon next year, which would be a 16.6% increase over 2016’s projected average price of $2.31 per gallon.
If this happens, diesel will average nearly as much as it did in 2015, but will still be significantly less than the 2014 average of $3.83 per gallon.
Much of the reason for the expected price increase is that oil prices are forecast to move higher. Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude is expected to jump 17.6% next year over 2016’s expected final average, from $43.07 per barrel to $50.66 per barrel. Despite the hike, this is only $2 more than the 2015 average but is much less than the average of $93.17 per barrel in 2014. Brent crude prices are expected to follow much of the same pattern.
Contributing to this, according to the report, is U.S. crude oil production that averaged 9.4 million barrels per day in 2015, and is forecast to average 8.9 million in 2016 and 8.8 million in 2017. Also global oil inventories are expected to build next year at a rate that is expected to be just more than half of this year.
The report noted that at the late November meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), members announced a framework for supply reductions among most of its members while several non-members also announced plans to freeze or reduce oil production.
“The extent to which the announced plans will be carried out and actually reduce supply below levels that would have occurred in their absence remains uncertain,” the report said. “If the agreement contributes to prices rising above $50 per barrel in the coming months, it could encourage a return to supply growth in U.S…. oil more quickly than currently expected.”
According to the department, crude oil prices near $50 per barrel have led to increased investment by some U.S. production companies and a price above could contribute to supply growth in other U.S. tight oil regions and in other non-OPEC producing countries that do not participate in the OPEC-led supply reductions. Some analysts feel this could help keep oil prices returning from high levels seen as recently as 2014, before prices suddenly collapsed to below their current levels.
Meantime, expectations are that gasoline prices will also rise in 2017, though by a smaller margin than diesel and crude oil. The department is forecasting the average retail price of regular-grade gasoline to increase 7.3% in 2017 compared to 2016’s expected average. This would put it at $2.30 per gallon, compared to an expected 2016 average of $2.14 but still below the averages of $2.43 and $3.36 per gallon in 2015 and 2014, respectively.
More Fleet Management

What Geotab's New AI Connector Means for Fleets
Fleets can now ask their usual AI assistants questions about maintenance, safety, fuel use, and vehicle performance, using their live Geotab data, and take action on the answers without leaving their preferred AI tool.
Read More →
New C.H. Robinson Tool Opens Door to More Predictable Freight
BidBoardX lets carriers search, bid on, and secure committed freight opportunities through a single digital marketplace.
Read More →
New York City's Microhub Project is Delivering Results
Trucking, last-mile delivery companies, and environmental advocates like what they are seeing so far with New York's microhub program.
Read More →
Why Truck Detention Keeps Costing Fleets Time and Money
A 2024 ATRI study found detention affects nearly 40% of truckload stops and costs the industry more than $15 billion annually. Despite the toll on drivers, fleets, and supply chains, the problem remains stubbornly persistent.
Read More →
Time is Running Out to Apply for Exclusive HDT Event
Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange brings fleet managers and suppliers together for the deeper conversations that lead to ideas, partnerships, and solutions. Time is running out to apply for the September event.
Read More →
Amazon Launches Less-Than-Truckload Freight Offering for All Businesses
This launch is the latest addition to Amazon Supply Chain Services, a portfolio of supply chain capabilities from Amazon, including freight, distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping.
Read More →
Import Cargo Volume to See Year-Over-Year Gain Again in June, Then Remain Below 2025 Levels Into Fall
After July, the report predicts a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.
Read More →
AUCTION OF EQUITY INTEREST IN HEAVY HAUL TRUCKING COMPANY!!
Mark your calendar: June 30, 2026 (10:00 a.m. PDT). A 37.5% ownership interest in MagnaTrans, LLC, a California limited liability company doing business as Magna Transportation Group, will be sold in an in-person and online auction to the highest bidder or bidders under Article 9 of the Uniform Commercial Code. The Rancho Cucamonga-based heavy haul and over-dimensional trucking company operates across California, Oregon, and Arizona.
Read More →
Volvo Trucks Adds Unattended Over-the-Air Software Update Capabilities
The latest evolution of Volvo’s over-the-air update technology allows software updates to run while trucks are parked, helping fleets keep vehicles current without disrupting operations.
Read More →How Waste Connections is Using Data, Telematics, and AI
How do you manage and maintain more than 18,000 connected trucks? Data. Lots of it.
Read More →

