ACT Research says its forecasts for medium- and heavy-duty truck production remain essentially unchanged, forecasting 295,000 Class 8 truck production for 2012.
"Recently released U.S. economic data have had a better tone as evidenced by firmer October labor market data, a positive and rising third quarter real GDP, and a rising U.S. stock market," said Sam Kahan, ACT's chief economist. "These improved figures have reinforced our contention that the onset of a U.S. recession is not imminent."
"The underlying demand drivers continue strong," said Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst, in an interview. However, he said he's keeping a close eye on the situation in Europe, which recently has been making investors nervous with Italy's debt problems.
On the micro-economic side, Vieth notes that "the supply/demand equilibrium between trucks and freight is favoring truckers right now, and that is leading to healthy trucker profitability. We know from history that when truckers make money, they buy trucks."
Most of that will continue to be to replace aging trucks, rather than for new capacity, he said.
Vieth also noted that the price of used trucks has risen, making it more attractive to trade in older vehicles and purchase new ones.
