Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Inflation Makes a Return, Leading Indicators Down Again

Consumer prices are heading higher, according to new U.S. Labor Department numbers, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
Read Evan's Posts
February 19, 2016
Economic Watch: Inflation Makes a Return, Leading Indicators Down Again

 

3 min to read


Consumer prices are heading higher, according to new U.S. Labor Department numbers, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again.

While retail prices – or what the government calls the Consumer Price Index – were unchanged in January from the month before, over the past 12 months this index has increased 1.4%. That follows a 0.7% 12-month increase in December. This compares to a rate of near zero a year ago and is the fastest pace of growth for the CPI since October 2014.

Ad Loading...

So called core prices, which exclude volatile energy and food costs, were broad-based, increasing 0.3% last month from December. That's the strongest month-over-month increase since August 2011, and is up 2.2% over the past year.

The Fed has repeatedly said that an annual inflation rate target of 2% is one of the main criteria that it will look at in determining interest rate increases, but it has been below this level for around four years. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in years in December.

“Despite a volatile start to the year, coupled with a larger-than-expected gain on the producer side reported Tuesday, inflation pressures appear to be gaining ground, albeit still well below the Fed's 2% objective,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income.

“The hawks at the Fed appeared to be sitting on the sideline at the January meeting, conceding to their dovish colleagues who saw increased ‘downside risks.' At this point, however, with volatility subsiding, a still-moderate economy, which is the new accepted bar of expectations, and rising inflation pressures, the hawks are likely to bolster their argument for a second rate increase near-term.”

According to RBC Economics, January CPI confirmed expectations of a further increase in the headline inflation rate. Year-over-year, the CPI has risen steadily from 0% in September 2015 to 1.4% in January 2016.

Ad Loading...

“Our forecast assumes that headline CPI will remain close to its January rate for much of 2016 before picking up toward to the Fed’s 2% objective near the end of the year," said Josh Nye, Economist, RBC Economics. Core inflation, which gradually increased during 2015, is expected to remain at or slightly above 2% this year.

"The gradual increase in core inflation, even in the face of downward pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and energy price pass-through, will likely boost the Fed’s confidence that inflation will pick up toward its 2.0% objective in the medium term," Nye sais. "While we expect a cautious approach from the Fed will result in no rate change in March, our forecast assumes a gradual tightening cycle will resume in the second quarter of 2016."

Leading Indicators Decline For Second Straight Month

The report follows one released Thursday by the private research group The Conference Board, used as a barometer of expected economic conditions in the next three to six months. It Leading Economic Index fell for the second straight month, but there appears to be little reason for worry.

The LEI declined 0.2% in January to 123.2, following a 0.3% decrease in December and a 0.5% increase in November.

“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “Despite back-to-back monthly declines, the index doesn’t signal a significant increase in the risk of recession, and its six-month growth rate remains consistent with a modest economic expansion through early 2016.”

Ad Loading...

The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index for the U.S., a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.3% in January to 113.2, following a 0.1% increase in December, and no change in November. The Lagging Economic Index, which measures U.S. economic activity of previous months, increased 0.1% in January to 120.0 following a 0.2% increase in December, and a 0.4% increase in November.

More Fleet Management

Fleetworthy fleet management.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 23, 2026

Fleetworthy Unifies Brands Under Single Banner to Streamline Fleet Readiness

Company consolidates Bestpass, Drivewyze and CPSuite into one platform aimed at reducing vendor complexity and controlling fleet costs

Read More →
Podcast thumbnail saying "Cargo Theft: Is Your Load Next?"
Fleet ManagementFebruary 23, 2026

Double Brokering, Phishing, and the Rise of Strategic Cargo Theft

Cargo theft has evolved from parking-lot break-ins to cyber-enabled strategic fraud. Here’s what fleets need to know.

Read More →
YouTube thumbnail with Scott Cornell, HDT Talks Trucking Logo, and the words, "Is Your Load Next?"
Safety & Complianceby Deborah LockridgeFebruary 20, 2026

The New Cargo Theft Playbook — And How Fleets Can Fight Back

Cargo theft has shifted from parking-lot break-ins to organized international schemes using double brokering, phishing, and even spoofing tracking signals. In this HDT Talks Trucking video podcast episode, cargo-theft investigator Scott Cornell explains what’s changed and what fleets need to do now.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Daimler Truck North America Vice President David Carson
Fleet Managementby Jack RobertsFebruary 19, 2026

Capacity Overhang Begins to Clear, But Fleets Aren’t Ready to Spend 

Daimler Truck’s David Carson sees early signs of tightening capacity — yet buyers remain wary, extending trade cycles and resisting a pre-2027 emissions surge. 

Read More →
Map showing which states have bad freight bottlenecks
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 17, 2026

Chicago Interchange Overtakes Longstanding New Jersey Intersection as Worst Freight Bottleneck

The American Transportation Research Institute's annual analysis of truck speeds through congested interchanges yielded a new worst bottleneck this year.

Read More →
HDT Top 20 Products Award Logo
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeFebruary 13, 2026

HDT Top 20 Products 2026: The New Tools, Technologies, and Ideas Shaping Trucking

From pricing intelligence and compliance tools to charging infrastructure, diagnostics, tires, and AI, HDT’s 2026 Top 20 Products recognize the new tools, technologies, and ideas heavy-duty trucking fleets are using to run their businesses.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Geotab's Neil Cawse on stage during keynote at Geotab Connect 2026
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeFebruary 12, 2026

Adapt or Die: Geotab’s Neil Cawse on AI’s Rapid Reinvention of Fleet Management

Artificial intelligence is evolving faster than fleets can keep up, and telematics must evolve with it, Cawse said during Geotab Connect. The future? A single AI coordinating every system — and leaders who know how to guide it.

Read More →
Illustration with question mark and graph illustrating uncertainty
Fleet Managementby StaffFebruary 12, 2026

After Three Years of Pressure, Motor Carriers and Brokers See Early Signs of a Turn

Survey data show carriers and brokers expect improving demand in 2026, even as rates lag and capital investment remains on hold.

Read More →
Photo of GO Focus Pro dashcam
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 11, 2026

Geotab Launches AI-Powered GO Focus Pro Dash Cam With 360-Degree Visibility

Geotab launches GO Focus Pro, an AI-powered 360-degree dash cam designed to reduce collisions, prevent fraud, and protect fleets from nuclear verdict risk.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Knowledge Hub fleet intelligence system.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 10, 2026

Augment Launches Freight-Native Knowledge Hub to Preserve Operational Know-How

Knowledge Hub is designed to turn scattered tribal knowledge into execution-ready intelligence and help logistics teams make faster, more consistent decisions.

Read More →