
Although FTR's trucking conditions index improved to essentially neutral in August, U.S. trucking activity as measured by tonnage dropped in September to the lowest in three months, and North American Class 8 net orders in September were the weakest since 2019.
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Trucking is still suffering from the overcapacity hangover that developed in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic boom, but some major truckload fleets are refusing to lower rates any further. Are there green shoots indicating a freight market recovery on the horizon?
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While FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index showed substantial improvement in January, the index remains in the negative.
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“Trucking companies that managed their businesses well during the good times should remain healthy and outperform those that had relied on a robust market to remain afloat,” FTR officials predict.
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FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index is forecast to recover to positive territory in April and beyond, but signals of potentially weaker demand and rates than currently forecast could temper that outlook.
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While market conditions for carriers might have peaked, they remain strong and are forecast to remain in the double-digit positive range for the rest of the year, FTR reports.
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Stronger freight rates would have pushed FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index to a third straight record, but those gains were offset by a swing in diesel prices. Still, conditions were robust.
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Although most market factors were not quite as strong in April as they were in March, a reversal of March’s higher diesel prices improved overall trucking conditions.
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“You could hardly devise better market conditions for trucking companies as demand is robust in both the consumer and industrial sectors," said Avery Vise, FTR’s VP of trucking.
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FTR’s latest forecast calls for stronger freight demand and positive trucking conditions through 2021.
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