Although FTR's trucking conditions index improved to essentially neutral in August, U.S. trucking activity as measured by tonnage dropped in September to the lowest in three months, and North American Class 8 net orders in September were the weakest since 2019.

However, after a long freight recession, some industry observers believe that trucking capacity could soon be tightening and lead to improve rates and trucking conditions in 2026.

ATA's Tonnage Index

Truck freight tonnage declined 0.9% after gaining 0.9% in August and 1.1% in July, according to the American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index. 

“Tonnage levels remain choppy, but they are up 2.1% since hitting a low in January,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in a news release.

“Compared to the high three years earlier, however, truck tonnage is still off by 3.9%. In fact, September’s tonnage level was essentially the same as in September 2023, underscoring the tough freight market over the last few years.”

In September, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 114.2, down from 115.3 in August. 

The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, rose 0.8% from the same month last year after increasing 0.4% in August. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2024, tonnage was up 0.2%. 

The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 114.7 in September, 2.6% below August’s reading of 117.7. 

Both indices are dominated by contract freight, as opposed to spot market freight. The tonnage index is calculated on surveys from ATA membership.

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index Basically Neutral in August

FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) improved to an essentially neutral 0.3 in August from -1.03 in July.  The gain was due primarily to less challenging freight rates. Although utilization was the most positive factor, it was not very strong. 

While the near-term TCI outlook is in similar range as August’s reading, FTR said it forecasts improved market conditions in 2026 and 2027.

“The potential for a capacity-driven recovery in trucking has risen over the past month due to severe restrictions imposed on issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses for foreign drivers,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, in a news release.

“However, despite some anecdotal reports about various effects of a crackdown on immigrant drivers, available data has yet to show a substantial impact on market conditions.

“We expect pressure on foreign drivers to be a significant factor for capacity in the coming months, but many questions remain about the scope and speed of the effects of tighter CDL and English language enforcement on the truck freight market.”

The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.

Class 8 Truck Orders Weakest September Since 2019

The continuing difficult freight environment and uncertainty about issues such as tariffs and emissions standards have weighed on orders for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks.

ACT Research reported that final North American Class 8 net orders totaled 20,666 units in September, down 44% year over year.

“This was the weakest September for orders since 2019 as tariffs, carrier profits, and regulatory limbo continue to drive industry uncertainty,” according to Carter Vieth, Research Analyst at ACT Research. 

“Worryingly, the new §232 [tariffs] on imported trucks risks onerous cost increases come November 1, at a time when industry demand is already under pressure. For-hire carriers remain stuck contending with the longest freight downturn in recent history, and private fleets have pulled back.”

“While capacity is starting to exit the market at a quicker clip, a necessary evil for spot rate improvement, softening demand in the short term will counterbalance tightening supply,” he said.

Class 8 tractor orders totaled 12,654 units, down 26% year over year.

Vocational Class 8 orders totaled a healthy 8,012 units. Although that’s down 60% year over year, Vieth said that compares to last September’s record vocational order of around 20,000 units as new production capacity came online. 

“Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be affected in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds, and regulations.”

In medium-duty, total Class 5-7 orders fell 19% year over year to 16,133 units. 

“MD orders have slowed notably this year, as still-elevated inventories, a weaker economic outlook, and notably increased consumer pessimism weigh on MD demand,” Vieth said.