Last week, Heavy Duty Trucking's editors offered their take on the top stories of 2009. This week, we peer into our crystal ball to predict what we'll be talking about in 2010, from the economic recovery to the environment to more government regulations.

The Recovery

While GDP started to grow again in the third quarter of 2009, and is expected to continue expanding, the economy is not on solid ground just yet. A relapse into contraction is not expected, but GDP growth is not forecasted to exceed the average historical growth rate of 3.0 percent until 2011.

However, as American Trucking Associations' Bob Costello has noted, after the 20-percent contraction we've seen in freight volumes, even 2 percent growth in the number of loads "is going to feel a heck of a lot better."

Nearly two out of three trucking executives surveyed by Transport Capital Partners in the fourth quarter said they expected freight volume to improve in the next seven to 12 months.

The Culling of the Herd

The economic downturn brought with it an unprecedented sidelining of as many as 100,000 trucks as companies went bankrupt or were consolidated or otherwise merged. The real impact of this story has yet to play out, as we'll see when the recovery begins in earnest. It's expected that we'll see a capacity shortage the likes of which can only be estimated. Many of the trucks were sold off-shore, so it won't be a matter of simply getting out the battery charger and firing that equipment up again.

Gone with the trucks are as many drivers, paving the way for a driver shortage worse than the industry has ever seen - a shortage that will be exacerbated by new stricter federal safety regulations such as CSA 2010 (see below) and regulations targeting driver health issues.

CSA 2010

Comprehensive Safety Analysis 2010 is a huge change in how the government evaluates trucking safety. Carriers that have never before been on the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's radar screen will show up on CSA 2010. Driver actions will count more than ever before, which could mean big changes in hiring, training, etc. Eventually this should lead to a more professional class of driver and drive some of the bad apples out of the business. But we're in for a lot of pain in the process.

Hours of Service

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration's proposed revision of the hours of service rule (due by August) may include tougher electronic onboard recorder requirements, accompanied by some relief from HOS supporting documents requirements.

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration sent its final rule requiring electronic onboard recorders on some trucks to the White House for approval in mid-December, setting the stage for publication probably in February. But HOS rules could take it further. (See "EOBR Rulemaking Still in Flux from the December issue of HDT.)

The Environment

We'll continue to see federal efforts to address the issue of climate change. The Senate will likely pass a cap-and-trade measure that includes support for nuclear power and offshore drilling. Whatever the shape of a cap-and-trade bill, it will cause diesel fuel to become more expensive. (See "The Fight Against Global Warming: What's at Stake for Trucking in Cap-and-Trade from the August issue of HDT.)

Separately, there are two separate efforts under way to regulate truck fuel economy. And we'll see even more news on hybrids and alternative fuels for commercial trucks.

Infrastructure

Congress and the administration may again postpone the tough decision on raising fuel taxes for highway funding, pushing reform of federal highway policy into 2011. (For more coverage on this issue, see the Highway Reform section of Washington Report on Truckinginfo.com.)