New, trucking-focused economic reports suggest that North America’s long-term freight recession is getting worse.

Both DAT Freight and Analytics and the American Trucking Associations released their assessments of freight activity in October 2025. And the results are not encouraging.

A ‘Long Cool Shadow’ for Holiday Goods

DAT opened its report by noting that truckload volumes fell for the fourth straight month in October. The slide, the firm said, is already casting a “long, cool shadow on shipping activity for holiday retail goods.”

For the first time in 2025, the DAT Truckload Volume Index (TVI) for all three equipment types was lower on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis:

• Van TVI: 232, down 3% compared to September and 11% year over year 

• Refrigerated TVI: 184, down 2% month over month and 7% year over year

• Flatbed TVI: 305, down 4% month over month and 3% year over year

“Freight volumes in the third quarter and October reflect what we’re seeing in the broader goods economy, with shippers drawing on inventory built up earlier in the year to reduce their exposure to tariffs and weak consumer demand,” said Ken Adamo, DAT chief of analytics. 

“As a result, the traditional peak holiday shipping season looks virtually non-existent this year.”

Rates Climb Slightly

While truckload freight volumes continued to slip, tighter capacity nudged rates upward, DAT analysts reported.

National average spot rates rose for all three equipment types in October:

• Spot van: $2.07 per mile, up 2 cents from September

• Spot reefer: $2.48 per mile, up 4 cents

• Spot flatbed: $2.51 per mile, up 1 cent

Spot rates were higher than in October 2024, when the van rate averaged $2.02 per mile, the reefer rate $2.39, and the flatbed rate $2.42.

Contract rates, however, showed little change compared to September:

• Contract van: $2.42 per mile, unchanged for the third straight month

• Contract reefer: $2.78 per mile, up 2 cents

• Contract flatbed: $3.09 per mile, up 3 cents

Still a Buyer’s Market

While dry van rates on new contracts are averaging 1 to 2% less than the rates they are replacing, new contract rates for temperature-controlled freight are beginning to rise, noted Chris Caplice, DAT chief scientist.

“While it’s a buyer’s market for truckload transportation, it’s also buyer beware,” Caplice said. 

“Polling of shippers in our DAT iQ Benchmark consortium shows they’re prioritizing reliable capacity over securing minor cost savings on new contracts. Carrier survivability and overall viability are becoming growing concerns.”

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 2.1% in October

The American Trucking Association reported that trucking activity in the United States fell in October. This pushed the level down to the lowest since January. 

Specifically, truck freight tonnage decreased 2.1% after falling 0.8% in September, according to the American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index. 

October’s weakness shows the freight market remains very difficult, dropping the most of any single month since January 2024,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. 

“As a result, the level of freight was the lowest since January 2025. Compared with a year earlier, tonnage experienced its largest decline in 2025.”

In October, the ATA advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index equaled 111.9, down from 114.3 in September. 

The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, contracted 1.8% from the same month last year after increasing 0.9% in September. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2024, tonnage was unchanged. 

September’s SA decrease was revised up slightly from that first reported in ATA's October 20 press release.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 119.2 in October, 3.8% above September’s reading of 114.8.