TIAX, a collaborative product and technology development firm, and Global Insight, a forecasting firm, Monday released a study predicting vast changes in the powertrains
of trucks by 2020. The companies predict cleaner, more efficient engines and greater use of self-shifting transmissions and hybrid heavy-duty vehicles.
The study, "The Future of Heavy-Duty Powertrains," was commissioned by a group of oil companies, engine and vehicle manufacturers, and component suppliers to investigate the impact of more stringent emissions regulations, increased traffic congestion, and a shortage of skilled drivers for large vehicles on the heavy-duty vehicle industry in North America, Europe, and Japan.
“Heavy-duty powertrains will undergo a revolution over the next 15 years,” said J.R Linna, Principal in the Automotive Unit at TIAX. “Not only will the technical advances be remarkable but the pace of change will be so rapid that some of the technologies that are currently being deployed will be obsolete by 2020.”
Key findings of the report include:
• A new kind of engine technology -- Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI)--will power nearly 40 percent of heavy-duty vehicles by 2020. Unlike the traditional Diesel engine, HCCI emits almost no emissions of nitrogen oxides into the air. Nitrogen oxides are responsible for the creation of ozone, which can be harmful at ground level. Initially HCCI will only be able to power light loads at low speeds so early versions of the engine will also incorporate conventional Diesel combustion to supply more power when greater demand is placed on the engine. A full-mode HCCI engine that can meet heavy-duty demands will eventually supersede the mixed-mode HCCI/Diesel technology.
• By 2020, 15-25% of heavy-duty vehicles globally will incorporate either hybrid electric or hydraulic hybrid technology. The rapid deployment of hybrid technology in the heavy-duty vehicle industry can partly be attributed to the fact that commercial vehicle operators have regularly scheduled routes and can therefore accurately calculate how much money they will save on fuel and brake maintenance by investing in the more fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles.
• The demand for self-shifting transmission technology in heavy-duty vehicles will increase dramatically over the next 15 years. Because of increasing traffic congestion, concerns about the rising cost of fuel, and greater sensitivity to maintenance costs, a significant number of heavy-duty vehicles will feature self-shifting transmissions that maximize fuel efficiency. Additionally, the use of self-shifting transmissions will broaden the labor pool from which drivers can be recruited because trucks with automated or automatic transmissions are easier to drive.
For more information or to obtain a summary of the report, contact TIAX at: www.tiaxllc.com or Global Insight at: www.globalinsight.com/powertrain.