The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index dipped 0.2% in July, offsetting some of the relatively strong 1% gain posted in June.


"In July, the U.S. economy remained in 'she loves me, she loves me not' mode," said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

July's result, he said, represents a continuation of the idling economic conditions that have persisted for over a year. Over this time period, bad news has been alternating with good, leaving investors and forecasters nervous and unable to identify sustainable trends.

The PCI has started the second half of 2011 on a slightly down note and wobbly, slow growth is expected to continue for the rest of this year as the economy struggles to find a catalyst. However, another dip appears unlikely, as the traditional sources of recessions, homes and automobiles, are not currently positioned to produce a downturn.

Last month, the PCI forecast for below consensus GDP growth was confirmed by the U.S. government's subsequent estimate of 1.3% GDP growth for the second quarter.

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