Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: Overall Conditions Improve, Manufacturing Eases

Third-quarter GDP numbers fuel talk that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month for the first time in many years – despite a disappointing report on manufacturing.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
November 24, 2015
Economic Watch: Overall Conditions Improve, Manufacturing Eases

 

3 min to read


Third-quarter GDP numbers fuel talk that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month for the first time in many years – despite a disappointing report on manufacturing.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the gross domestic product, a measure of the total output of the nation's goods and services, increased at a 2.1% annual rate. That's an improvement over last month's estimate of a 1.5% pace for the quarter.

Ad Loading...

The improvement reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, residential fixed investment and exports.

Business inventories also declined in the quarter, cutting just .59 of a percentage point off the overall GDP figure, rather than 1.44 percentage point in the report a month earlier, according to Reuters.

The consumer spending level again was reporting to be growing at a brisk pace, expanding at a 3% pace versus 3.2% in last month’s report. That slight decline was more than offset by business spending on equipment, expanded greatly from the original 5.3% growth estimate to 9.5%.

Ad Loading...

Despite this improvement in this second reading of the GDP for the third quarter, the rate is still lower than the 3.9% pace in the second quarter of 2015 – but well ahead of the 0.6% rate in the first quarter.

With the upward revision to third quarter GDP growth, the economy is now expanding at a rate close to the economy’s long-run average rate, according to RBC Economics.

“The maintenance of this solid pace of domestic spending argues in favor of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting to withdraw some of the currently highly stimulative monetary conditions,” said Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at RBC. “Our forecast assumes that at the Dec. 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed will opt to raise the current fed funds range by 25 basis points to 0.25% to 0.50%.

"The emergence of financial market volatility globally stayed the Fed’s hand at the September policy meeting, though these pressures have subsequently eased allowing the Fed to focus on the solid domestic economic conditions.”

November Manufacturing Eases Up

Meantime, a Monday report from the financial information services provider Markit shows manufacturing in November was dealt a setback following the modest rebound recorded the previous month.

Ad Loading...

Its Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 52.6, down from 54.1 in October, the slowest improvement in overall business conditions since October 2013, but still above the neutral 50 threshold.

Reports from survey respondents generally cited a cyclical slowdown in demand patterns and ongoing weakness in export sales, according to Markit. Reflecting this, the index measuring new orders from abroad dipped back inside negative territory in November. Lower levels of new work from abroad were linked to a combination of the strong dollar and weaker global economic conditions.

Despite the decline, this measure still suggests the goods-producing sector is expanding at a robust pace, which should help support wider economic growth in the fourth quarter, according to Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

“The survey data are broadly consistent with manufacturing output growing at an annualized rate of at least 2% in the fourth quarter so far,” he said. “With the survey continuing to show modest growth, and any weakness linked to the global economy rather than a deterioration in domestic demand, there seems little in the survey results to throw up any roadblocks to a Fed that seems intent on hiking interest rates in December.”

More Fleet Management

Truck on divided interstate highway driving toward sunrise
Fleet Management•October 27, 2026

Your Trucks Are Busy. That Doesn’t Mean They’re Winning.

High utilization doesn’t always mean strong margins. Looking beyond the current load can help fleets make better dispatch decisions and get more value from each truck’s time.

Read More →
ATA economist Bob Costello speaking beside a graph showing truckload operating costs rising as freight revenue per mile declined after 2022.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 22, 2026

Why This Trucking Recovery Is Different

Freight demand remains sluggish, but rising costs and tougher enforcement have taken enough capacity out of the market to change the outlook for motor carriers.

Read More →
PS Coach tablet interface showing a driver’s coaching inbox, safety event video and coaching advice for a harsh-braking event.
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

Platform Science Adds Dispatch and Safety Tools

Four additions to PS Fleet help fleets monitor loads, manage driver coaching, share truck locations and adjust video system settings.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Screen capture showing PrePass Intelligence data on tolls
Fleet Management•by News/Media Release•October 21, 2026

PrePass Intelligence Mines Fleet Bypass, Toll and Safety Data

PrePass Intelligence helps fleets measure bypass savings, flag potential toll overcharges, and spot suspicious transactions by combining data from separate systems.

Read More →
Computer screen showing examples of what fleets could ask Motive AI Agents to do
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 20, 2026

Motive Adds AI Agents for Fleet Operations

New tools automate follow-up on fleet data, from maintenance work orders to driver alerts, with two-way voice conversations planned for later this year.

Read More →
Graphic art with a heavy-duty tractor trailer and a work truck with the words "trivia lunch"
Fleet Management•by Lauren Fletcher•October 19, 2026

Can You Beat Our Trucking Trivia Challenge?

Test your truck knowledge with 19 trivia questions from Heavy Duty Trucking Exchange. Can you keep up with the fleet pros?

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Four horizontal and two vertical video screens show different aspects of BeyondTruck's new compatibility engine
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

BeyondTrucks Adds Rules Checks to Dispatch

New Compatibility Engine checks driver qualifications, equipment requirements and fleet policies before loads are dispatched.

Read More →
Gloved hand fueling a truck beside a graphic listing ATRI’s top three trucking concerns for 2026: fuel prices, lawsuit abuse reform and CSA.
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 19, 2026

Diesel Prices Hijack Trucking’s Worry List

ATRI’s annual survey finds cautious optimism about freight, but diesel costs, litigation, and insurance continue to squeeze fleets. Drivers have different priorities on several issues.

Read More →
Illustration showing ladders against a blue background with Heavy Duty Trucking Emerging Leaders logo and the words "2026 nominations now open"
Fleet Management•by Staff•October 16, 2026

Nomination Deadline Extended for HDT Emerging Leaders

Just a few more days to nominate accomplished trucking fleet professionals under 40 who are making an impact and helping lead the industry forward for the HDT Emerging Leaders award. Deadline extended to October 20!

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Headshot of Mark Colson in front of a truck grille next to an American Trucking Associations logo
Fleet Management•by Deborah Lockridge•October 15, 2026

What Will ATA’s New Leader Bring to Trucking's Table?

Incoming President and CEO Mark Colson’s record in Alabama offers clues about his priorities and approach following Chris Spear’s abrupt departure as the head of the American Trucking Associations.

Read More →