Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: GDP Slows on Trade as Other Indicators Stay Strong

The widest measure of U.S. economic growth slowed in not just the final quarter of last year but for all of 2016. However, that performance wasn’t so much due to weakness here at home.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
January 27, 2017
Economic Watch: GDP Slows on Trade as Other Indicators Stay Strong

 

5 min to read


The widest measure of U.S. economic growth slowed in not just the final quarter of last year but for all of 2016, according to a preliminary Commerce Department report released Friday. However, that performance wasn’t so much due to weakness here at home.

The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in October through December, down from the 3.5% pace in the third quarter of 2016, and less than a 2.2% increase expected by a poll of analysts.  

Ad Loading...

The downturn reflected an acceleration in imports, a deceleration in personal spending as well as federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, increased state and local government spending, and more nonresidential fixed investment, according to the department.

Also, a drop in exports during the fourth quarter was the biggest in nearly two years with trade shaving off 1.7 percentage points in fourth quarter GDP growth after it added nearly 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter.

For all of 2016 the GDP increased 1.6% compared to 2015, when it grew by 2.6% from the year before. Last year also marked its weakest annual performance since 2011.

Ad Loading...

Following a disappointing first half of 2016, domestic growth picked up momentum from June to September, according to Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza.

“The improvement over the summer months, however, proved short-lived as growth declined once again heading into the final quarter of the year,” she said. “Supplemented in good part by a sizable rebuilding of inventories, investment appears to have gained some ground particularly in terms of intellectual property and equipment spending, a more positive theme that could continue to carry forward especially amid a pro-growth agenda out of Washington.”

Capital Spending Increases Despite Fall in Durable Goods 

The report was released at the same time as a separate one from the Commerce Department showing new orders for manufactured durable goods fell again in December while shipments posted another gain as a measure of business investment moved higher.

New orders fell 4.8% from November, the second straight monthly drop. However, when transportation orders are excluded, which declined 2.2%, new orders increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7%.

On a more encouraging note, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 0.8% in December, following gains of 1.5% in November and 0.5% in October. Shipments of these items rebounded 0.7% following a 0.5% November decline.

Ad Loading...

Shipments of manufactured durable goods increased 1.4% following a November gain of 0.3%, the third hike in the past four months.

While headline orders remain in negative territory, business investment appears to be gaining footing, which could be a positive indication for 2017, if said growth can be maintained, said Piegza.

“Businesses at this point are reportedly optimistic with a series of pro-growth proposals from the Trump administration focused on reducing the cost and regulatory burden on consumers and businesses,” she said. “The more recent agenda, however, of the White House on stricter trade agreements and potentially introducing large tariffs or taxes on exports into the U.S. could more than offset the gains from other areas of tax and regulatory relief.”

New Home Sales Fell in December Despite Better 2016

This follows reports from the day before showing sales of new homes tumbled in December while a measure of overall expected economic conditions showed a healthy improvement.

Sales of new single-family homes fell 10.4% in the final month of 2016 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000, according to the Commerce Department. That marks the biggest one-month drop since March 2015 and is much larger than a consensus estimate from economists.

Ad Loading...

Despite this, sales for all of last year rose 12.2 from 2015 to 563,000 units, the highest annual rate since 2007 and the fifth straight year of growth. This compares to the early 2000s and before the Great Recession, when new home sales were more than 1 million annually for consecutive years.

“We are encouraged by the growth in the housing sector last year, and by the fact that builders increased inventory by 10% in anticipation of future business,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. “NAHB’s forecast calls for continued upward momentum this year, with housing starts expected to rise 10 percent over the course of 2017.”

Some analysts are blaming the monthly downturn to the natural volatility of the home-building market, especially during the winter months, as well as rising prices for cutting into demand.

Regionally, new home sales increased 48.4% in the Northeast. Sales fell 1.3% in the West, 12.6% in the South and 41% in the Midwest.

Economic Indicators of What’s To Come Remain Good

Meantime, a measure of economic conditions three to six months in the future showed continued strengthening.

Ad Loading...

The Leading Economic Index for the U.S. from the private research group The Conference Board increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% increase in November and a 0.2% increase in October. The latest reading met a consensus estimate from Wall Street analysts.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “December’s large gain was mainly driven by improving sentiment about the outlook and suggests the business cycle still showed strong momentum in the final months of 2016.”

This follows a report from Wednesday showing sales of existing homes in the U.S. declined in December while moving higher for all of last year as the nation’s manufacturing sector began 2017 on a strong note.

More Fleet Management

Illustration of a chalkboard with a hand drawing an arrow curving away from a partially erased straight arrow with the words "Embracing Change," the Heavy Duty Trucking Logo and the "cover feature" graphic.
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeAugust 1, 2026

How Innovative Trucking Leaders Turn Change Into an Advantage

As the pace of change accelerates in trucking, the fleets that adapt best have more than the latest technology. They have cultures that embrace improvement.

Read More →
Illustration of past due invoices with red X on top with background of a truck at a loading dock
Fleet ManagementJuly 27, 2026

Freight Broker Bonds Just Got Harder to Get. Here's What That Means for Your Fleet.

When it gets harder for a freight broker to prove they are financially sound, the ones who cannot clear that bar get pushed out of the market. And those are exactly the brokers who used to leave motor carriers holding the bag.

Read More →
Photo of cable bridge crossing Detroit River
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 23, 2026

Long-Awaited Canadian Border Bridge to Open in Detroit

For trucking, the bridge opening should offer immediate improvements in efficiency and reliability, with new customs facilities, expanded inspection capacity, and direct freeway-to-freeway connections.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Blue International heavy-duty truck with Aurora driverless truck software coming head-on on an interstate highway
Equipmentby Deborah LockridgeJuly 22, 2026

Aurora Rolls Out Next Generation of Driverless Trucks for Commercial Freight

Aurora's latest autonomous trucks it's rolling out with International feature lower-cost hardware designed for a million miles as the company expands commercial driverless freight operations across the U.S. Sun Belt.

Read More →
American Trucking Associations for-hire tonnage graph
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 21, 2026

Freight Tonnage Down, Rates up, as Lower Capacity Powers Trucking Recovery

The recovery from the freight recession continues to be driven by reduction in capacity rather than by increased demand.

Read More →
Cyberstop column header depicting images of ChatGPT prompt on a smartphone and shadowy hooded figure
Fleet Managementby Ben WilkensJuly 17, 2026

Think Your Trucking Fleet Isn't Using Much AI? Think Again

Shadow AI — the use of unauthorized artificial intelligence tools at work — is becoming increasingly common, putting sensitive company data at risk. Learn how trucking fleets can protect sensitive data while embracing AI.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Photo of semi trucks with Panther, ArcBest, and ABF trailers backed up to docks, with ArcBest logo superimposed on top
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 17, 2026

ArcBest Consolidates Brands, Cuts Workforce

The company will bring three business units under the ArcBest brand, eliminate about 2% of positions, and expects the changes to generate $40 million in annual savings.

Read More →
Cover of ATRI operational costs study with graph clip art and photo of trucks on highway in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJuly 15, 2026

Trucking Fleets Faced Record Operating Costs During Third Year of Freight Recession

ATRI's annual operational cost report shows carriers trimmed fleets, delayed equipment purchases, and ran older trucks as expenses continued to outpace freight rates.

Read More →
Micheline AI Assistant.

Michelin Adds AI Assistant to MyConnectedFleet Platform

Michelin’s new generative AI tool delivers instant fleet insights, helping managers analyze fuel use, tire maintenance, vehicle status, and operational performance without manually creating reports.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
LytxOne Platform.

LytxOne Platform Now Features AI, Compliance, and Asset Tracking Tools

New enhancements add AI-powered insights, asset tracking, compliance automation, and configurable privacy controls to Lytx's all-in-one fleet management platform.

Read More →