Heavy Duty Trucking Logo
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Economic Watch: GDP Slows on Trade as Other Indicators Stay Strong

The widest measure of U.S. economic growth slowed in not just the final quarter of last year but for all of 2016. However, that performance wasn’t so much due to weakness here at home.

Evan Lockridge
Evan LockridgeFormer Business Contributing Editor
Read Evan's Posts
January 27, 2017
Economic Watch: GDP Slows on Trade as Other Indicators Stay Strong

 

5 min to read


The widest measure of U.S. economic growth slowed in not just the final quarter of last year but for all of 2016, according to a preliminary Commerce Department report released Friday. However, that performance wasn’t so much due to weakness here at home.

The gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9% in October through December, down from the 3.5% pace in the third quarter of 2016, and less than a 2.2% increase expected by a poll of analysts.  

Ad Loading...

The downturn reflected an acceleration in imports, a deceleration in personal spending as well as federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, increased state and local government spending, and more nonresidential fixed investment, according to the department.

Also, a drop in exports during the fourth quarter was the biggest in nearly two years with trade shaving off 1.7 percentage points in fourth quarter GDP growth after it added nearly 0.9 percentage points in the third quarter.

For all of 2016 the GDP increased 1.6% compared to 2015, when it grew by 2.6% from the year before. Last year also marked its weakest annual performance since 2011.

Following a disappointing first half of 2016, domestic growth picked up momentum from June to September, according to Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza.

“The improvement over the summer months, however, proved short-lived as growth declined once again heading into the final quarter of the year,” she said. “Supplemented in good part by a sizable rebuilding of inventories, investment appears to have gained some ground particularly in terms of intellectual property and equipment spending, a more positive theme that could continue to carry forward especially amid a pro-growth agenda out of Washington.”

Ad Loading...

Capital Spending Increases Despite Fall in Durable Goods 

The report was released at the same time as a separate one from the Commerce Department showing new orders for manufactured durable goods fell again in December while shipments posted another gain as a measure of business investment moved higher.

New orders fell 4.8% from November, the second straight monthly drop. However, when transportation orders are excluded, which declined 2.2%, new orders increased 0.5%. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.7%.

On a more encouraging note, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft increased 0.8% in December, following gains of 1.5% in November and 0.5% in October. Shipments of these items rebounded 0.7% following a 0.5% November decline.

Shipments of manufactured durable goods increased 1.4% following a November gain of 0.3%, the third hike in the past four months.

While headline orders remain in negative territory, business investment appears to be gaining footing, which could be a positive indication for 2017, if said growth can be maintained, said Piegza.

Ad Loading...

“Businesses at this point are reportedly optimistic with a series of pro-growth proposals from the Trump administration focused on reducing the cost and regulatory burden on consumers and businesses,” she said. “The more recent agenda, however, of the White House on stricter trade agreements and potentially introducing large tariffs or taxes on exports into the U.S. could more than offset the gains from other areas of tax and regulatory relief.”

New Home Sales Fell in December Despite Better 2016

This follows reports from the day before showing sales of new homes tumbled in December while a measure of overall expected economic conditions showed a healthy improvement.

Sales of new single-family homes fell 10.4% in the final month of 2016 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 536,000, according to the Commerce Department. That marks the biggest one-month drop since March 2015 and is much larger than a consensus estimate from economists.

Despite this, sales for all of last year rose 12.2 from 2015 to 563,000 units, the highest annual rate since 2007 and the fifth straight year of growth. This compares to the early 2000s and before the Great Recession, when new home sales were more than 1 million annually for consecutive years.

“We are encouraged by the growth in the housing sector last year, and by the fact that builders increased inventory by 10% in anticipation of future business,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. “NAHB’s forecast calls for continued upward momentum this year, with housing starts expected to rise 10 percent over the course of 2017.”

Ad Loading...

Some analysts are blaming the monthly downturn to the natural volatility of the home-building market, especially during the winter months, as well as rising prices for cutting into demand.

Regionally, new home sales increased 48.4% in the Northeast. Sales fell 1.3% in the West, 12.6% in the South and 41% in the Midwest.

Economic Indicators of What’s To Come Remain Good

Meantime, a measure of economic conditions three to six months in the future showed continued strengthening.

The Leading Economic Index for the U.S. from the private research group The Conference Board increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.1% increase in November and a 0.2% increase in October. The latest reading met a consensus estimate from Wall Street analysts.

“The U.S. Leading Economic Index increased in December, suggesting the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace, perhaps even accelerating slightly in the early months of this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of business cycles and growth research at The Conference Board. “December’s large gain was mainly driven by improving sentiment about the outlook and suggests the business cycle still showed strong momentum in the final months of 2016.”

Ad Loading...

This follows a report from Wednesday showing sales of existing homes in the U.S. declined in December while moving higher for all of last year as the nation’s manufacturing sector began 2017 on a strong note.

More Fleet Management

Daimler-Class8 partnership.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseFebruary 2, 2026

DTNA Partners with Class8 to Expand Digital Services for Freightliner Owner-Operators

A new partnership brings free wireless ELD service plus load optimization and dispatch planning tools to fourth- and fifth-generation Freightliner Cascadia customers, with broader model availability planned through 2026.

Read More →
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Reducing Fleet Downtime with Advanced Diagnostics

This white paper examines how advanced commercial vehicle diagnostics can significantly reduce fleet downtime as heavy duty vehicles become more complex. It shows how Autel’s CV diagnostic tools enable in-house troubleshooting, preventive maintenance, and faster repairs, helping fleets cut emissions-related downtime, reduce dealer dependence, and improve overall vehicle uptime and operating costs.

Read More →
SponsoredFebruary 1, 2026

Stop Watching Footage, Start Driving Results

6 intelligent dashcam tactics to improve safety and boost ROI

Read More →
Ad Loading...
M&A illustration with Werner and FirstFleet logos
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 29, 2026

Werner Expands Dedicated Fleet Nearly 50% With FirstFleet Acquisition

The $283 million acquisition of FirstFleet makes Werner the fifth-largest dedicated carrier and pushes more than half of its revenue into contract freight.

Read More →
Bobit Business Media B2X Rewards.
Fleet Managementby News/Media ReleaseJanuary 29, 2026

Bobit Business Media Launches B2X Rewards Engagement Program

B2X Rewards is a new, gamified rewards program aimed at driving deeper engagement across BBM’s digital platforms, newsletters, events, and TheFleetSource.com.

Read More →
Trucking Trends series graphic
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 29, 2026

AI is Reshaping Trucking in 2026, from the Back Office to the Shop

Trucking’s biggest technology shifts in 2026 have one thing in common: artificial intelligence.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Column graphic illustration with Deborah Lockridge head shot and a small fleet truck in the background
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 27, 2026

Why Small Trucking Fleets Are Still Standing [Commentary]

Why discipline, relationships, and focus have mattered more than size for smaller trucking fleets during the freight recession.

Read More →
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 23, 2026

Cargo Theft Is Surging. A Bill in Congress Could Help. [Video]

Cargo theft losses hit $725 million last year. In this HDT Talks Trucking Short Take video, Scott Cornell explains how a bill moving in Congress could bring federal tracking, enforcement, and prosecutions to help address the problem.

Read More →
CargoNet infographic showing 2025 cargo theft trends
Fleet Managementby Deborah LockridgeJanuary 22, 2026

Cargo Theft Losses Jump 60% in 2025 as Criminals Target Higher-Value Freight

Cargo theft activity across North America held relatively steady in 2025 — but the financial damage did not, as ever-more-sophisticated organized criminal groups shifted their cargo theft focus to higher-value shipments.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Phillips Connect -- McLeod smart trailer TMS.
Fleet ManagementJanuary 22, 2026

Phillips Connect, McLeod Integrate Smart Trailer Data into TMS Workflows

A new partnership between Phillips Connect and McLeod allows fleets to view trailer health, location, and cargo status inside the same McLeod workflows used for planning, dispatch, and execution.

Read More →