Despite June Slip, Pulse of Commerce Still Strong

Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management slipped 1.9 percent in June, coming off a 3.1 percent boost in Ma

by Staff

July 13, 2010

2 min to read

Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management slipped 1.9 percent in June, coming off a 3.1 percent boost in May
. But PCI's chief economist says the index's daily and weekly figures are still strong.

"While June's number is substantially down, erasing two-thirds of May's great gain, the daily and weekly activity on which the monthly PCI is based does not suggest that the economy is heading over a cliff," said Ed Leamer, PCI chief economist. "Part of the apparent strength of May and weakness in June is the result of the Memorial Day holiday occurring on the last day of May, allowing the negative Memorial Day effect which is usually confined to May to leak into June. More importantly, the June weakness was confined to the first two weeks, and by the second half of June, we were seeing strong growth again."

The PCI represents real-time diesel fuel consumption data from over-the-road trucking tracked by Ceridian, a provider of electronic and stored value card payment services and human resources solutions.

From May's reading of 111.4, the PCI fell to 109.3.

The index has also been strong on a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis. The index was up 8.6 percent from June 2009, the seventh straight month of positive year-over-year results.

"The PCI has not been showing the sustained negative numbers characteristic of a double-dip recession," Leamer said.

Ceridian says the PCI closely tracks the Federal Reserve's monthly Industrial Production index. The most recent PCI predicts Industrial Production to grow by 0.25 percent in June. The Federal Reserve will release June figures on July 15.

"Since the last half of 2009, manufacturers had been actively replenishing inventories, which brought the quarterly PCI numbers up due to more trucking activity," said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian. "Now that the heavy period of inventory build-up is over, we're seeing a corresponding drop in the quarterly number."

For more information about the index, visit www.ceridianindex.com.