While commercial vehicle orders saw a strong end to 2009, net orders are expected to slow dramatically in the first quarter before recovering in the second half of 2010
, according to ACT Research.

In the latest ACT North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook, ACT expects vehicle production to grow 22 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, largely due to EPA 2010 pre-buy effects last quarter. ACT says build slots for pre-mandate engines are virtually filled, and this should cause orders to slow for the newer and more expensive engines.

Medium-duty vehicle production, which is largely tied to the health of the housing market, should see a more steady and gradual increase through 2010 and 2011.

"With the industry out of pre-mandate build slots, there is very little near-term support for domestic order activity," said Kenny Vieth, partner and senior analyst with ACT Research. "Since the price of a new Class 8 unit is set to rise sharply and the trucking industry is still dealing with excess capacity and weak used sales values, we expect OEMs will be particularly aggressive marketing product outside the U.S. and Canada."