ATA MC&E: Economy Improves, Driver Shortage Continues
SAN DIEGO -- American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello discussed the current freight levels, highlighting the fact that the ATA truck tonnage index hit a record high in August, before posing questions to this year's economic panel.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, center, was joined by (left to right) John Felmy of the American Petroleum Institute, Jack Kleinhenz of the National Retail Federation and Chad Moutray of the National Association of Manufacturers, to discuss the current status of the economy and its effect on the industry. Photo by Evan Lockridge

SAN DIEGO -- Before posing questions to this year’s panel on the current economic status of the industry, American Trucking Associations Chief Economist Bob Costello discussed the current freight levels, highlighting the fact that the ATA truck tonnage index hit a record high this past August.
Leading off the session at ATA's annual Management Conference & Exhibition, Costello said the industry saw an overall 1.5% growth in truckload for-hire freight loads and 3.1% increase in LTL in 2013. Growth was stalled by the polar vortex in the first quarter of 2014, resulting in a 0.3% drop in truckload. But, as Costello pointed out, there was a 3.7% growth year over year in the second quarter.
“We will take that all day long,” said Costello, adding that LTL jumped to from 4.9% in the first quarter to 8.4% in the second quarter. “I think demand is solid.”
Turning to panelist Jack Kleinhenz of the National Retail Federation to give attendees on overview of the retail market, Costello asked whether spending was going to accelerate this year over 2013.
“We had a mild summer in terms of spending, so disposable income is going to be available for the rest of the year as we go into the holiday season,” explained Kleinhenz. He added that consumer sentiment has increased since the start of 2014, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, while online purchases also continue to increase.
For panelist Chad Moutray of the National Association of Manufacturers, a survey that his group has been partnering on with Industry Week magazine shows the economy is definitely bouncing back.
“As you can see, 87% of our members are either somewhat or very positive about their own company’s outlook,” said Moutray, pointing to a slide on the results of the survey. “That’s a pretty strong figure.”
John Felmy, chief economist at the American Petroleum Institute, started by showing data on the increase in U.S. production of both crude oil and natural gas, which have seen measurable jumps in the last few years.
“Crude oil has turned around dramatically over the last few years to an increase of 3 million barrels a day,” said Felmy. “What’s most important about the increase in fuel production in the U.S. is that it has almost exactly offset the decline in production in other parts of the world.”
While each speaker spoke about the increases in their respective industries, there continues to be an overall issue when it comes to recruiting and retaining drivers. While there was a 2.6% increase in the number of overall for-hire truckload tractors, that number stayed flat in 2013 and has dropped 3.5% this year to date.
“What’s happening is, you can’t find that drivers, so companies are dropping the number of trucks they are running,” said Costello.
Kleinhenz pointed to factors that influence consumption, including disposable income.
“Income growth is very important and dependent on job growth,” he added.
Costello also highlighted the increase in driver turnover, which hit a high of 102% in the second quarter of this year for large truckload fleets, the highest since 2012.
A major cause of the driver shortage is the number of older drivers retiring, Costello said. “We need to attract 96,000 drivers every year because of retirement."
More Drivers

Netradyne Intelligence Uses New AI Agents to Automate Response to In-Cab Camera Data
The company called the next-generation in-cab camera safety platform "a fundamental shift from systems that report on what happened to systems that actively drive what should happen next."
Read More →
Why Truck Detention Keeps Costing Fleets Time and Money
A 2024 ATRI study found detention affects nearly 40% of truckload stops and costs the industry more than $15 billion annually. Despite the toll on drivers, fleets, and supply chains, the problem remains stubbornly persistent.
Read More →
Prime Inc. to Open $7.9M Flagship Used-Truck Dealership
A new driver-focused facility to sell Prime Inc's used trucks and trailers will be the first purpose-built location in the company's history.
Read More →Short Takes: Inside K&B’s Truck Safety Tech
Listen to learn how K&B Transportation uses cellphone-blocking technology, speed management systems, weather geofencing, bridge avoidance tools, and more to improve driver safety.
Read More →
Nussbaum Expands Driver Compensation with Pay Raises, Profit Sharing
Nussbaum Transportation said its latest compensation package could push first-year driver earnings above $90,000 in key hiring markets.
Read More →Listen: Inside Modern Fleet Safety: AI, Cameras & Speed Control at K&B Transportation
Fleet safety is evolving fast—and technology is at the center of it. Learn how a former commercial vehicle enforcement officer turned director of safety at K&B Transportation is embracing real-world safety technology.
Read More →
Maverick Announces 2026 Driver Pay Raises
New raises for Maverick Transportation drivers will take effect on May 31, 2026.
Read More →
Illinois Trucker Indicted for Nearly $22,000 in Ohio Turnpike Toll Evasion
Authorities say an Illinois trucker avoided paying tolls for two years, and now faces felony charges, possible prison time, and forfeiture of his Freightliner tractor.
Read More →
New Trojan Driver Cargo Theft Scam Bypasses Carrier Vetting Systems
Cargo theft rings plant operatives as drivers inside legitimate, fully vetted carriers, then execute coordinated thefts that look like a traditional straight theft from the outside.
Read More →
WIM, Trucker Path Name Top 3 Women-Friendly Truck Stops
ATA’s Women In Motion Council and Trucker Path highlight three truck stops that meet all seven safety-focused criteria and rank highest among female drivers.
Read More →
